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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47947)	10/15/2001 11:23:53 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, The disappointing thing is that there were no conclusions reached, just unsupported assertions. I disagree. Pirah concluded (many times) that he prefers using valuation and Thomas concluded (many times) that Pirah gave him no more reason to want to use it than in the past. :) I prefer to use valuation. Pirah prefers to use valutaion. Others prefer to use valuation. I could explain when it has been helpful to me in the past and when it hasn't, but those explanations wouldn't be supported assertions about the process. I don't believe assertions about valuation can be supported in the way you and Thomas might be looking for, but that doesn't mean valuation can't be helpful. I look forward to Pirah's response to your question, but I don't think it would be helpful to try the exercise you're contemplating. You're looking to determine if the various valuation methods could predict inflection points over the last five years when Pirah has repeatedly explained that valuation is not predictive. --Mike Buckley

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47947)	10/16/2001 12:10:15 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

It really would be nice to see some of these methods put to a standard objective test. I certainly wouldn't object! Perhaps we could take a single consensus Gorilla, like Cisco I really don't think that we can focus on only a single company, but even a small handful would begin to give us a sense of whether what worked for one might work for another.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47947)	10/16/2001 12:03:40 PM
From: Pirah Naman	Respond to of 54805

uf: I too was concerned about the fraction of space devoted to valuation. If people want to try some methods out as Project Hunt type affairs, I am willing to offer some help to participants. Alternatively, if there was strong enough interest in valuation, perhaps somebody could start a companion thread where valuation and related topics could be explored. However, my guess is that the overall level of interest is not high enough to support either and this recent spike has been an aberration. We could certainly do something like you suggest with a single company or a few companies, but I can tell you from experience that there are very few inflection points. e.g., five years ago CSCO would have passed a "buy" test, and two years ago would have passed a "sell" test. I'm being slightly loose with the dates, but the point being, as Thomas has pointed out, that this really doesn't tell us much. - Pirah