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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (47959)	10/16/2001 11:51:18 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

Regardless of what types of multiples we assign for buy and sell points, they are only going to be as good as our projected growth rates. It seems to me that the delta in our growth rates could be larger than the delta in our buy/sell points. Garbage in garbage out..... This does concern me ... and is certainly one of the fears I have with respect to any suggestion that "proper" application of valuation techniques would allow one to move out and in to an otherwise good company. I don't know that a disruptive period, however, needs to change the analysis drastically if one is projecting out five years. Events of the last year and last month might well cause us to revise our model fairly dramatically for the short run and make some adjustment to the longer run figures, but this wouldn't necessarily cause as large a shift in the overall value as the short run figures alone would indicate. This alone is one of the reasons that I have very high skepticism of any "instantaneous" valuation metrics since they are measuring only one point in time.