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Technology Stocks : Commerce One Inc - (CMRC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ted Downs who wrote (1884)	10/16/2001 5:15:20 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1938

Hi Ted, I'd also like to get Tim's thoughts on this. But from what I've read SAP has signed agreements to not take over CMRC for a period of time or to increase ownership stake beyond a level either at 20% or the low 20's. If CMRC's management does not specifically want a buy out of the company, then SAP is possibly just adhering to the agreements in place. But this is just a speculation on my part. I think we need to hear what they say tomorrow on the conference call Earnings Conference Call: (800)218-0713 on Oct 17 2001 5:00PM

To: Ted Downs who wrote (1884)	10/17/2001 12:02:37 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 1938

Hi Ted: If I was that savy I would not have invested in cmrc where I did <vbg>. Actually there are a few things one needs to look for b/4 entering this particular stock. 1st - Hoffman in particular and other insiders start to buy shares. 2nd - options reissued. This should be done in this time frame (in October and around the earnings release date), I'm not sure of the exact date (maybe today). 3rd - expenses in line with sales. a 25 cent / share loss is probably 50M in cash (20 to 25% of the recent cash infushion by sap). Still not sure if the recent cuts acomplish this but if #1 is happening then this s/b acomplished. If management pushes off breakeven past 2nd qtr next year then we'll know this is still not acomplished. 4th - TA wise will the $3 level hold. This is where the stock traded when the SAP deal was announced (I think SAP paid close to $4.5). Notice the stock did not hold this level on the naz plunge. SAP & CMRC have a 50/50 partnership besides SAP now owning just over 20% of CMRC. This is the partnership which is a major piece of SAP's net initiative. The revenues are not split 50/50. They are weighted towards the partner generating the actual sale. IMO this venture with the expertise cmrc brings to the table (cmrc plowed a majority of its resources into this) why SAP continues its investment (SAP does need CMRC for this net expertise although SAP maybe has now caught up in this regard). This and Hoffmann are the key reasons for SAP investment. I would not expect SAP to acquire CMRC in the near future. 1 - Even if they pay $5 in stock look @ the SAP dilution. 2 - Right now they avoid the dilution and obtain the benefits. 3 - If your cmrc would you want to be acquired for $5 IF you think you can right the ship and you have enough cash to survive for over a year (provided they are not buring $50M / quarter) hoping the market (software, economy not stock) turns around. If it wasn't for SAP, CMRC would probably be below $1. Anyway I need to read the financials and see whats going on. Can't post more but just look to #1 - #4. Tim