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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (21723)	10/16/2001 8:55:59 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 52237

Paul, >>>> ...since your 62% number turned up over 140 years of market data. From a friend of mine who has done a lot of research on bear markets: "Once the DJIA declined 30%+, which it did on Sept. 21, the probability of a 40% decline before a 30% rally becomes 62%, and the probability of a 45% decline before a 30% rally becomes 42%. The study was done covering 21 events from 1860 to 2001. The probabilities for these declines for events after 1900 are only slightly greater." <<<< Thanks for sharing that. Personally, I never did the probability analysis on big calls for myself, since I dont have the data available. As mentioned previously, the figure of 62%(highest level of probability), came from studies in fluid a genomics study and fluid dynamics. That study in the market by your friends, helps support my strong belief. As for the study itself, my understanding is that the chances are basicly 3:5(62%,38%) of another leg down in the DOW. If that was to occur, that could be enough pressure for the NAZ/NDX to retest, if not lower.