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To: FR1 who wrote (1633)	10/16/2001 12:28:21 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

The Fed accelerated the process. If there were enough demand, the strong would be buying more. Debt is what killed off the sector. And most of the weaklings with debt borrowed when rates were NOT at their highs, so they will STILL have trouble borrowing at more attractive rates if the bank would even consider them.

To: FR1 who wrote (1633)	10/16/2001 8:31:52 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

Hi FR1, If you don't mind my jumping into the fray here, I'd have to say that I don't find myself in agreement with you regarding the role of the FRB in the demise of the telecom infrastructure industry. I've been studying this sector since 1998 on a daily basis and what truly happened here, IMVHO, was that a "gold rush" mentality developed among the participants in the bandwidth markets, including players who initially had some exceptionally good business plans. LVLT and GX come to mind as seemingly highly intelligent bets that went asunder. The reason they are failing as businesses is that the bandwidth gold rush created vastly too much competition. There were no significant barriers to entry for anyone who could secure financing of USD 1 Billion or more. I witnessed the impact on the early adaptors like LVLT and GX as dozens and dozens (the Sandoz pharmaceutical family comes to mind here)of competitors announced and started to build competing networks. What has occurred is a "tragedy of the commons", wherein the available market for bandwidth services could never possibly expand fast enough to accomodate all the competitors hoping to sell bandwidth services. The collapse of the sector was, again, IMVHO, an artifact of a sea change in attitude in the private capital markets, as financiers realized that early assumptions in the sector were simply being overtaken by events. Lack of demand led to lack of financing trust led to bankruptcies in extraordinary numbers. For those who have a penchant for a historical perspective on these things, the market bust/panic in canal companies in 1810, and in railroads in 1877 are very parallel events. Although we all know from the pundits that "this time it is different". <w> Namaste, Ray