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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (5531)	10/16/2001 12:44:45 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Michael, there are "issues" out there with regard to potential missing radioactive material, but I highly doubt that much of this is finding its way into the hands of terrorists. If anything, those nations attempting to develop a rudimentary nuclear deterrent would demand precedence. For example, were plutonium smuggled into Tehran, and then stolen by Hizbollah, I can hardly imagine Iranian intelligence sitting on their butts and permitting that to occur. Not when they are some of the primary financial and military contributors to that organization. Were I the hed of Iranian intelligence, I would be kicking some serious butt to have that material returned for my country's nuclear program, given it scarcity and value. After all, I have Pakistan and Iraq I have to worry about far more than the Israelis (who I maintain covert relations with to obtain supplies for my US made military equipment). But that said, I can't totally eliminate the possibility of some form of nuclear attack. Neither would I realistically be able to prevent it without possessing agents within the organization, or the terrorists making a critical mistake that provides such information to me. There are FAR MORE destructive attacks I could achieve with a nice quantity of ammonium nitrate fertilizer and diesel fuel, or explosives you can make out of widely available materials and demand far less operational security, or logistical support from a Al-Qaeda. The reality is that a nation really can't prevent a determined and well-planned terrorist attack from those willing to sacrifice their lives to carry it out. The most we can do is counter-attack and create sufficient "discomfort" for the terrorist leadership, that they spend more time looking over their shoulders than they do planning further attacks. And that's what we're currently doing and probably will be doing for years. Eventually, we'll take out the existing terrorist cell infrastructure, and any newly arrived "soldiers" will have to be more careful to fly under our radar. What I fear most is that we'll spend the next several months freaking out, but finally become complacent once again.. Theoretically, we might not see another major attack for years. These events take awhile to develop and carry out. And in that time, we'll think everything is hunky-dory, but then be hit by something even more deadly. Hawk