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To: Tony Viola who wrote (145419)	10/16/2001 2:02:02 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Tony - Re: "Even if Hammer is fast out of the gate (in a year and a half), can AMD afford to keep developing a process roadmap, like the one Wanna BMW posted below, to keep improving it like they must to keep up with Intel?" Unless - and Until - AMD's Hamster garners SERIOUS industry SERVER support, it will be sold as a standard 32-bit CPU - competing with AMD's other 32 bit offerings - BarfOn and HappyLoosa, and ThoroughDEAD -- as well as Intel's Pentium 4 follow-ons. Net result is that AMD will be diluting their entire 32 bit development and reap no benefit in the 64-bit high end high ASP arena. Note - what major OEM (except SUN) does NOT have an active ITanium-64 bit Server Program under development and expansion? Answer - NONE. That leaves precious little resources in a tight economy to devote to any risky venture from AMD. Paul

To: Tony Viola who wrote (145419)	10/16/2001 2:36:05 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: can AMD afford to keep developing a process roadmap It cost Intel $10 Billion to move to copper, AMD has already spent most of what it needs to move to copper and SOI. Figure Intel is out another $10 Billion to move to SOI, and they're completely out of resources. AMD continues to lead Intel by over a year in process technology. Intel's balance sheet continues to worsen, while AMD's is actually getting better, even in this market. We'll see who can't afford to keep up in 4 years at the .7 node - don't be so sure that it won't be Intel that has to drop out of the race.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (145419)	10/16/2001 4:21:17 PM
From: Noel	Respond to of 186894

Tony, Good post!! Roadmap for P4 gets it to 10 GHz I am glad that someone is finally addressing the economics of process development. Apart from the high R&D expenditure of process development there is also the high capital expense of the production fabs. Someone speculated a few years ago when a state-of-the-art logic fab cost half-a-billion a pop that in the future when the cost of a single fab would be a few billions, only countries would be able to afford fabs not corporations. We can arleady see that happening. The Europeans -- Phillips, Infineon -- are getting together, the Taiwanese will merge, the Japanese getting out of the chip-making business, and in the US we have Intel, IBM, and AMD-Motorola. I predict three process generations from now it will be only Intel and IBM. This is something that Craig Barrett with his 35 years of process development experience understands better than anyone else in the world with his push into 300mm and $7.5B capital expenditure in the worst year of the semiconductor business!! For a long-term investor this is what really matters. Debates like the Athlon XP 1800 vs the P4 Xeon 2GHz will seem trivial!