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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (9598)	10/16/2001 4:26:15 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

On NG plays technicals, no opinion. But I think shorting NG plays now is quite risky. Several weather reports are predicting a colder than normal Winter in NG consuming areas, drilling rig counts are dropping and manufacturing is coming back online. Even with no surprises with AGA's tomorrow, there is a long way to #6 oil prices and even more to #2 oil. Anyone who has a choice to lock in NG vs #2 oil maybe doing it soon as an utter collapse of NG prices does not appear to be on the horizon.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (9598)	10/16/2001 4:41:06 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, I'm unsure about a short on EVG at this time. NG prices are up to 2.64 in after hours. The XNG has shown this sector wants to rally and is willing to do so in the face of record inventories. EVG's volume is down, which does provide hope that it'll decline, but the stock is clearly under accumulation. The RSI is rising, but at the point where EVG retreated previously. The Stochastics show the stock as being overbought and due for a correction. The candlesticks indicate more upside unless the API's are very bearish. Technically, this is where you'd want to short EVG. My concern is that six months out, the existing inventories will be in the process of being worked out. Rig counts are down so supply should cut back. This is also the point where a stock may breakout. Que seria may have made the perfect timing call, and I hope he has, but the risk/reward ratio favors waiting for confirmation in my opinion. (Unless Brother Bum gives his stamp of approval, in which case I'll digress.) stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyimy[pb20!b10!b50!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Uf!Lh14,3] da-conservative-bum