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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (47997)	10/16/2001 5:13:28 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>>BRK will never achieve 29% compounding again.<< >Maybe,Maybe not. Now it is time to ask you how much money would BRK need to make for the next ten years to achieve 29% compounding. Not sure what you mean by "never again". They achieved 32% over the past year. Of course, it seems crazy to think that BRK will increase 30% for the next 30 years--that would mean $100 trillion (hey, maybe warren would buy a sportscar!). But then, it would have been equally crazy in 1990 to say that BRKA would balloon from $10 billion to $10 trillion by 2020. And yet, this hasn't really stopped them from growing to $110 billion today, i.e. about a 30% clip. There's a difference between saying that growth will eventually slow, and saying that it will slow soon. I for one wouldn't expect BRK to grow at 30% for the next thirty years, but bear two things in mind: -BRK should continue to increase book value at a substantially faster rate than almost any company in the world (techs excluded) for a long time. Buffett's not that old (Probably could work 15 more years if he wanted), and i'm sure his successors are capable. -Warren's been giving that "aw, shucks, i'm thinking 15% from here on out" routine for decades.