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To: uu who wrote (24421)	10/17/2001 4:37:51 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 25814

OT Addi, I am doing fine. I am mostly in cash, except that I deployed a little into SPY on 10/02 and a little into IWO the next day. As I said before, the only way out of this mess is through a gut-wrenching and excruciating multi-year bear market. And that is playing out now. The strong rallies that occur from time to time only succeed in sucking in more and more people as they hunt for "bargains", while smart money keeps feeding stocks to the bagholders. If you noticed, this year, there was a decline from 2400 to 1600, and then the market reclaimed about 50% of the losses, going up to 2100 or so. Then there was a decline from 2100 to just above 1400. We are seeing another bear-market rally now. It is going to run out of steam soon. Today's tech investors are brave. They won't give up hope that easily. Their faith in the markets is deeper than most religions can command. They will go down slowly along with their mortally wounded ship, the USS Nasdaq. The only way such irrational hope can be broken is through a gut-wrenching and excruciating multi-year bear market. And that scenario is unfolding now. Those in cash need to have patience (while continuing to invest part of their money in all-weather stocks like BRK and all-weather strategies like Dogs of the Dow, seasonality-based investing and "strategy index" mutual funds like HFCGX). Anybody who loses patience and wades in too early will need most of the next bull-market just to break even. Patience is the key. Well, that's more than you asked for. Btw, don't worry about my vacations. Sometimes I post when I am on vacation too!