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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4885)	10/17/2001 3:54:56 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

in hearing from all camps.... this is the most bearish post I could find today, and slider makes some very valid points that bear markets after mania's do not end with valuations above the historical mean. But that also does not rule out large rallies along the way to the culmination of the bear. ----------- :Paul Shread who wrote (2934) From: SliderOnTheBlack Wednesday, Oct 17, 2001 2:49 PM Respond to of 2948 George C re: the recovery of da'Bull I disagree with Zeev. I think his turnips may be technically signaling this & his TA read may be correct; but the underlying fundamental under-pinnings of this market are collapsing & that makes the traditional TA read negated. We just had a historic misallocation of market capital. That takes years, not months to rectify. We've got a debt/credit quality crisis. The US consumer is tapped out, has a NEGATIVE savings rate and mortgage deliquencies and credit card chargeoffs & bankruptcies are ramping...and with Corporate America just beginning to start a cyclical layoff & cutback in Cap Ex...it's not going to end anytime soon...and those $300 rebate checks aren't going to fix the problem. Who & what are going to drive this Bull ? Consumer spending ? Corporate profits ? Merrill Lynch just announced what ? 10,000 coming layoffs...its just starting , not ending. Wait to see what the Auto Mfgr's do within the next 90 days... We just exited a textbook posterchild - speculative bubble. Speculative bull markets have NEVER (keyword there) NEVER bottomed at levels above the historic trailing mean valuation multiples...quite the opposite in fact. Terrorism is inflationary ! ...it adds costs and drains profits...and it has and will continue to affect consumer confidence, sentiment and thus spending. Lower rates didn't save the Nikkei and have yet to work here, now have they ? Look at money supply. Look at the Fiat Presses just pumpin' out greenbacks like there's no tomorrow and then look at our deficit ? - that's a collapsing fundamental support underlying the market. The US Dollar is NOT healthy fundamentally...its fiat toilet paper....when, not if...tic toc` This "War on Terrorism" is a classic "Rogue Wave" market event for which few are adequately factoring in the seminal shifts & reactions yet to come. I prefer to play defense here... My call is we just saw one of the great Fed/ESF prop jobs in history (only this one HAD to be done)and this is a Bear Market rally...nothing more, nothing less. A "free market" (sans an ESF prop job) would have us at DOW 7000ish here today imho. There is a huge air pocket balloon propping up this market presently imho...and Bin Laden & Saddam have an armload of pins... I still see DOW 6-7000;maybe even 5,000 coming and it taking a grinding 2-3, even 4 more years to do it. Corporate earnings and Geopolitics support Dow 5000 today on all hisotic valuation metrics. Yes; DOW 5,000. I mentioned this before; where Julian Robertson, Soros & Druckenmiller, Vinnik, Shopkorn et al exited & threw in the towel...will make them look alike geniuses; compared to where we will ultimately bottom. ...and all hubris aside; the archives of this thread & the former/ original SI SD will someday show the quite incredible reasults that a few good minds collectively can produce; as oppossed to the market mavens who are nothing more than a professional paid cheerleading squad...spending/investing OPM ~