Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21918)	10/17/2001 6:55:55 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

OCT 17 INDEX UPDATE -------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - UPPER MIDRANGE, INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL SPX - UPPER MIDRANGE, INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL OEX - UPPER MIDRANGE, INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL NAZ - UPPER MIDRANGE, BEARISH ENGULFING NDX - UPPER MIDRANGE, BEARISH ENGULFING VIX - UPPER MIDRANGE NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = positive 12 I did get intraday CLASS 1 SELL signals in the DOW/SPX/OEX and by the close the minimum selloff requirement has already been fulfilled. The DOW sold off 256 points from today's intraday highs. Early this morning I was getting concerned that I may have NEGATED CLASS 1 SELL SIGNALs in the NAZ/NDX, then we get the largest single intraday selloff(126 points[1440-1314]) in the NDX since the late JAN 2001 peak at 2772. The big question for me - why such a big single day selloff? Is it just a one day anomoly where the selling is normal or is this an ominous hint of some worse to come. So I did a quick analysis going back to JAN 1 1999 to see what happened in the NDX after BLACK CANDLES of greater than 100 NDX points, which arrived near/at a short-term top. In almost all of the occurances, such senerio led to further decline whether it was immediate or after a pause(flat day), but the declines varied from normal to large to huge. So the only conclusion I could come to was that at least a normal size decline should occur, but could be worse. There were about 25 occurances, but since I did it quickly I did not take down the exact dates. Previously, I had mentioned that I did not feel that the forth coming pullback would be strong, but in light of that HUGE BLACK DAY in the NDX, I cannot now ignore the possiblity that the selloff could be normal or worse in size. One positive for the NAZ is that the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs actually improved today slightly. It could just be lagging, but if the the HI-LOs do not deteriorate that would be a hint that the selloff may not be strong. Need to watch it day by day. I am still holding my COVERED LEAP position, but did close my LONGs in my personal mutual fund account and am now stickly long(no hedge) about 6%. No, I'm not calling a crash, nor am I calling a retest, at least not yet. However, I am now somewhat short and will go day by day. One last thing, if the NAZ/NDX gaps down tomorrow, that could create another MULTIDAY ISLAND REVERSAL, but this time an ISLAND TOP. Im not predicting a GAP tomorrow, just mentioning it.