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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (54237)	10/18/2001 9:34:11 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, you may be reading too much into TXN's statement. While they did say orders may have bottomed in Q3 with revenue bottoming in Q4 they also said that this outlook was based on optimistic micro factors such as a reduction in customer inventory levels rather than an improved macro outlook. They also stated that 2002 capex would probably be at a level comparable to the run rate of 2H01. This would imply a capex decline of about 33% from $1.8 billion in '01 to $1.2 billion in '02. There utilization rates are under 50%. Just last night TXN said that they believed the bottom would be Q3/Q4 of this year, not next. This implies that our recovery will begin in Q1CY02, not two to three more quarters out as ML seems to believe. I don't read anything in TXN's statement to suggest a turnaround in capex for 2002. The opposite is implied. Al OTOH, maybe its me reading too much into TXN's statement.