To: Ian@SI who wrote (4723 ) 10/18/2001 9:54:52 AM From: Proud_Infidel Respond to of 5867 DRAM makers face consolidation amid 67% drop in market for 2001, says Dataquest Semiconductor Business News (10/17/01 21:38 p.m. EST) TOKYO -- Worldwide DRAM revenues are projected to decline by 67% in 2001 and an additional 19% in 2002--a trend that could accelerate the consolidation in this troubled memory industry, according to a new forecast from Dataquest Inc. here today. Worldwide DRAM sales are on pace to reach $10.5 billion in 2001, compared to $31.5 billion in 2000. In 2002, DRAM revenue is expected to reach only $8.5 billion, according to Dataquest of San Jose. This is a stark contrast to 1995, when the DRAM industry peaked with revenue of $41.8 billion, the market research firm said. "The omens are bad for the DRAM industry next year," said Andrew Norwood, who tracks the industry for Dataquest. "All DRAM companies are now losing money and will do so until the fourth quarter of 2002. Some vendors may not even survive thatlong." And it gets worse. "In the last few months, some companies have announced small production cutbacks, but we had hoped to see substantial cuts by the major companies," Norwood said. "No company wants to take the initiative for the fear of losing market share--so now they are all going to suffer in 2002." Some companies are already on life-support systems. For example, Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc. is being kept afloat by its creditors in the hope that the market will recover in 2002. Other companies, including Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., are in a stronger position because of their dominance in the market. Still others, including Toshiba Corp. of Japan, are looking at how to exit the DRAM business. "Toshiba of Japan is investigating a possible memory joint venture with Infineon," Norwood said. "When the market recovers, we may find that there are only four major DRAM players and not the current six," he said. "It's not too late for a possible upside to 2002, but it will be consolidation that makes this happen. If we saw a major manufacturer go under, things would change fast," Norwood said. "Then we could see market revenue grow significantly in 2002." While the DRAM industry struggles, there is good news for PC companies. "Today you can buy 256-megabytes of memory for under $30 compared to $230 12 months ago," Norwood said. "With DRAM prices now well under the costs of production, end users are getting something for nothing. It is as if the DRAM companies are unwillingly subsidizing every PC sold by more than $40," he said.