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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (21936)	10/17/2001 11:00:58 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

OT >>Do you post results of your signals?<< Unfortunately, no. Not really. We have a fund sheet that tracks our trades but we don't trade every signal for various reasons. Don and I are often busy and don't trade all of Don's class signals in our fund account so it really doesn't reflect them since we missed a LOT of trades early in the year. We used to have a strict time tolerance for trading teh account where all trades had to be in 15 minutes before the close and preferably 30 minutes prior. Many trades were a few minutes late so we didn't count them and they were really really good trades! I think Don's personal account which he trades more religiously is up big where as our site fund account is under water slightly due to missing so many short signals. My own signals that show on my charts have a problem due to their construction. My signal is a complex mix of various cycle indicators and momentum indicators all cocktailed up and weighted. The problem comes when one of my averaged momentum indicators triggers a signal but then within a couple days the momentum shifts the other way. Because of the way I have them weighted in importance, the signals that were given a day or two before will suddenly disappear off the chart thus giving a false signal but leaving no evidence of it. I have been trying to figure out how to make the signal "stick" but have been unable to figure it out at this time. Since the formula is in use on all my charts, it is beyond my scope to track it close enough to keep a log of them as of yet. Note I track about 1500 stocks and indexes, update over 100 charts on teh site each night, manage the discussion board and do backups etc as well as work a real job. I used to post a simpler formula that stuck better but it isn't as accurate. It backtested around 72% or so if I recall correctly. When I back tested my one that I sow now but used to be only for my own use over the years, it tests out over 96% accurate of course in backtesting it is excluding the "ghost" signals and negated signals are usually so obvious, I wouldn't have followed them anyway. In real time, they are probably closer to 80% when used with common sense such as in conjuction with trendlines, obvious extreme levels reached coming off over sold or over bought extremes etc. How I trade them is with stops until the signals have a chance to stick so it does take some getting used to. It works almost flawlessly in a range bound market not going through extreme swings and that I know for a fact. One of these days I will figure out how to code the formula in MetaStock to stay there regardless of if momentum shifts or not and maybe even kick out a seperate symbol on the chart showing it was invalidated but I don't know the language well enough. Probably something of the sort if signal "A" would have been valid yesterday but not today, then paint this on the chart. Once I could do something like that, it would be easier to back test for more valid results but heck if I know how to do it at this time. Obviously I don't want to throw the signal out on the MetaStock board for people to gander at nor any of it's specific components. -gggg- EDIT - Funny thing is Don's signals used to lead mine by a day to two days but recently I have been leading his. Something changed and though I did tweek my signal slightly a year or so ago, it has been getting more pronounced lately. Strange.. Good Luck, Lee