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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (7874)	10/21/2001 4:44:08 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14101

Here's some hypothetical thinking on OXO: Ist assumption is without the FDA it doesn't happen. 2nd assumption is they don't go ahead without seeing good results from WF10 phase III. 3rd assumption is the deal is actioned in late spring/ early summer 2002. 4th and most important assumption is that the key is a placement on the NASDAQ, listing at a higher price. A starting valuation is the $150 million US that OXO was assessed at when DMX bought 20% for $30MM US. To make life easy and still show the target range, I will assume that any premium above that will be handled by convertible notes or preferred shares exercisable at a later date. That leaves the $150 million US to deal with. Paid so far is $31.5 million (2.4 Cdn goes towards it) Remaining: $118.5 Assumption 1. DMX gets FDA approval. J&J signs with an upfront of $18 million US (20 minus the 2 paid). It may be a touch more with a first right to negotiate WF10 distribution. Remaining: $100.5 The placement coinciding with the NASDAQ listing will be material in any event. I'm assuming its in the 20% range and am picking 8.5 million. That falls out the shareprice at $12US or so. So the purpose of this exercise was to get a valuation and some criteria around it. Now the question since I don't believe this can go ahead without the first 2 assumptions met, is do I think that getting FDA, J&J, and good WF10 results move this stock into the $18 Cdn range? Wolf