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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (82111)	10/18/2001 9:25:19 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Max, Sorry for any confusion. The current data shows three of the four in their Bullish state while the component graphs at that page are smoothed with moving averages. They're dated as well. I'll freshen them today when I get to the office. I usually only update those graphs about once a month. The downward whack that Zeal took was a one week thing caused by the lack of trading during WTC week. It self-corrected the following week. Zeal shows that the total number of issues being traded on the NYSE and the NASDAQ has been shrinking for a long time. It peaked around 9000 issues a couple years ago and is currently less than 8000. This is bullish in that the shrinking universe of investments tends to concentrate the dollars in those that remain. Current component values: Relative Valuation_____ 18.72 - Bullish Speculation______ minus 3.7 - Bullish Divergence______ 3.4 - Neutral Zeal______ minus 2.4 - Bullish While I like to have all four components confirming a Low Risk event, it's hard to accomplish when measuring such different things. Divergence was Bullish until last week, However it's now showing only Neutral as the market shows some confusion about which way the market will go next. A few weeks ago it was convinced the market would be going down (actually a bullish signal, short term). Here's a graph that shows the internals of the Speculation component: aim-users.com Note how the Worst are overwhelming the Best right now. This is what gives us a negative value (bullish) for this component. It indicates that the speculation pendulum has travelled just about as far as it can towards the BEAR end. That leaves it only one direction to go next - towards the Bull end. I'll be happy to answer any questions I can about the IW. Best regards, Tom