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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (54252)	10/18/2001 9:22:41 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Brainstorming by mike John writes "One possible outcome here is that the attacks could mark the bottom for technology spending." Not only marks the bottom but also has every company focused on their needs going forward. As i said to Jacob yesterday, one customer of mine said "if we are alive next year we will need to spend much on tech". So a successful phase 1 in our multi year was against terrorism combined with no terror surprise killing large numbers, will lead to a rebound in consumer sentiment as well as business spending on applicable technology. Up until yesterday that is what the markets were looking for. We shall see if jacobs 1643 number holds and we get a second leg. A quiet news day on the domestic terrorism front will help that occur. John writes: "Seems like our media is being used by the terrorists to amplify the terror." That is the point of why they have attacked the news media in the first place. That is one thing that points to non-arab sources for the anthrax. The choices of targets--Daschle, Brokaw, ABC news, the National Enquirer indicate a different agenda and a more initimate knowledge of US politcs. Why Daschle? Why not Lott? Perhaps it was payback for our united front after 9/11. I can even envision a scenario where mid east terrorists have supplied the anthrax to some weird domestic group. Those anarchists in Seattle come to mind--as i remember my history anarchists were the bomb throwers in the early 20th century. mike

To: John Trader who wrote (54252)	10/18/2001 1:43:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

John, Overall, 9/11 has to be considered a negative. The bond market has already decided that the risk premium needs to be increased, and bondtraders are usually quicker and smarter than stock traders. So, overall, the risk premium for stocks will be going up. But, within that, there are opportunities. I bought some more CCL today, at 21. messages.yahoo.com Stocks of vacation cruise companies have taken a huge hit. But they will come back, and the stronger will use this downturn to gain market share. CCL is the strongest in it's industry. I regard a rebound in CCL as inevitable, only the timing is uncertain. The kind of stock Buffett would buy, now at prices he would find attractive. I recall seeing a picture once, of a beach in Israel. There were pretty girls on beach towels, putting on suntan lotion, eyeing the boys. Walking among them were soldiers, patrolling in pairs, with automatic rifles, watching the horizon, waiting for the dinghies of suicide attackers who regularly come down from Lebanon. It's hard for me to imagine anyone thinking of that as a relaxing vacation. But they do. We humans adjust to our environment. Any environment. We get numb, we rationalize, we compensate, we close our eyes to ugliness, we adjust. To anything. So, after a pause of uncertain duration, we will (certainly) start booking vacation on Carnival Cruises. Even if those cruise ships must be accompanied by guided missile Destroyers.