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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 2:20:52 PM
From: wlheatmoon  Respond to of 2850
 
tom,,thanks for the thought. all is fine..just been busy and the world seems changed. priorities have changed. spending more time with family, work, enjoying the outdoors..less time goofing on the net....

hope all is well for you, too.

mike



To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 8:28:44 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 2850
 
AOL--this was an interesting article I had been saved a long time ago to post

AOL Transforming Itself in Expansion Bid Abroad

Tuesday, May 29, 2001
By Alec Klein,
Washington Post Staff Writer

LONDON – World domination begins with a woman named Connie.

The biggest Internet company in Britain got that way on the shoulders of a make-believe character who stands 5 feet 11 inches tall and sports a strawberry-hued bowl haircut. Connie is
endowed with distinctly British attributes to serve as a television pitchwoman for the local audience: She's crisp and proper and a helpful nanny to the Internet, someone to hold the hand of
wary consumers.

Think Mary Poppins, cyber style.

That's what AOL Time Warner Inc. was thinking when it concocted Connie. Be British – to a point. As the U.S. media giant spreads its brand around the globe, it's trying to blend into the local
scenery while still exporting its powerful stable of American entertainment products. It's a delicate balancing act that AOL has turned into a new model for globalization.

AOL is not simply imposing American culture. It is reinventing itself for each unique audience. And it's finding success: Connie is something of a cult figure in Britain, and AOL is the nation's
No. 1 Internet provider.

From an obscure Internet start-up conceived 16 years ago in the leafy suburbs of Northern Virginia, the local kid from Dulles has moved to New York and transformed itself into the planet's
largest media and entertainment company with its $112 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc., which was completed in January.

The patriarch of Washington's technology corridor is now pushing its products overseas by using a strategy that is an alchemy of quirky advertising and personal politics, fueled by corporate
strategists who are employing the science of market research, giving away software on compact disks, wooing the media and propping up grass-roots groups.

"Where there's growth, we ought to be," says Robert W. Pittman, AOL Time Warner's co-chief operating officer, adding: "We're going to be in the moron hall of fame if we don't take advantage
of the brand."

In AOL's global strivings, there is a hint of manifest destiny. Chairman Steve Case talks of its "mission of becoming the world's most valued and respected company." But there also is a
practical dimension to all this empire-building: The technology sector is a shambles, the Internet revolution is in question, and growth in the U.S. market is slowing.

Multinationals such as AOL – explorers in search of new dominions – must look abroad for customers. And yet these behemoths find themselves strangers in foreign lands, where they play
the part of scrappy start-ups, battling entrenched competitors. The campaign has not been easy for AOL as it encounters government monopolies, the vagaries of the political process,
unfriendly telephone-pricing plans and a host of challenges indigenous to the Internet.

Enormous Challenge

A hulking brick building tattooed with a giant "T" sits across the street from the AOL headquarters in Hamburg, a constant reminder of its dweller, rival Deutsche Telekom AG, and of the
hugeness of the American company's challenge abroad.

If AOL is to prevail in Europe, it must succeed in Germany, one of the most powerful countries on the continent.

It is 10:41 a.m. in a sterile-looking conference room, and Michael Lynton, president of AOL International, is sitting back, arms folded, listening to his assembled troops. Just arriving after an
overnight flight from New York, the 41-year-old executive cuts an elegant, casual figure in an open-collared checkered shirt, gray slacks and chocolate suede shoes. But there is no mistaking,
he is agitated.

AOL has run into a wall in Germany. Deutsche Telekom – or DT, as it is known – is the country's biggest Internet provider, and it controls the telephone network that links AOL customers to
the Web. DT also happens to be majority-owned by the German government.


DT charges AOL by the minute for use of its phone network. But AOL charges its customers a flat monthly rate. That means the longer customers stay online, the more it costs AOL. It's a
problem because AOL wants to encourage its customers to stay connected. The longer they are online, the more inviting a target they are to advertisers.

To change the rules, Gunnar Bender, AOL's top lobbyist in Germany, says AOL needs the help of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who has made technology a top priority of his administration.
The German leader wouldn't be terribly impressed if AOL arranged a sit-down with, for instance, President Bush, Bender says. But a meeting with AOL's chairman, Steve Case? Now, that
would get Schroeder's attention.

"He likes to talk to the big boys," Bender says.

Lynton agrees, saying he'll "make sure we have Steve in front of Schroeder."

New Competitors

AOL needs friends on a continent where its chief competitors aren't Microsoft Corp., Walt Disney Co. and the rest of the usual suspects in the United States. Abroad, it's competing with
former state monopolies and telecommunications giants with home-field advantage: DT, British Telecommunications PLC and France Telecom SA.

Since launching its international operations in 1994, AOL has stumbled beyond its borders at times. One of the most embarrassing missteps occurred two years ago after the company kicked
off its service in Latin America. When some customers loaded the AOL software on their computers, they were greeted by a blaring Brazilian samba – a factory glitch.

Still, 2000 was AOL's best year overseas. It added about 2 million subscribers, growing by 50 percent over the previous year, to more than 6 million members abroad. AOL already is the
closest thing to a global Internet provider, with more than 32 million subscribers. AOL has planted its flag in 16 foreign countries in eight languages, serving more than 1,000 cities.

Its best showing overseas has been in Europe, where it tops the British market in online subscribers and is No. 2 in Germany and France. Five years after entering Europe, AOL has garnered
more than 5.6 million customers.

AOL continues to carve out new markets. In the Netherlands, for instance, the company only offers its CompuServe online service, not the flagship AOL. Lynton wants to do better, as he
makes clear at a meeting a day later in London.

"Do we have a business plan that could work?" the international chief asks the head of AOL operations in the Netherlands. "How much cash do we have to burn before we get to a big
subscriber number?"

He is told 100.

As in $100 million. That would be the cost to AOL to establish a beachhead in the Netherlands. Lynton doesn't flinch.

Next up: the Asia-Pacific region, a tough market including Japan, China and Australia, where AOL has been forced to team up with local companies to make inroads. Japan has been
especially difficult because there are so many local competitors. Which may be why Lynton is frowning now.

He and a top lieutenant are going over a chart showing different pricing plans for the online service and how company officials expect Japanese consumers to respond to them. It's not pretty.
Lynton glances at his watch: "I'm running out of time."

Moments later, a driver is escorting Lynton in a black Mercedes sedan to Heathrow. In the back seat, he is working his Motorola cell phone, telling a colleague, "I'm just going to Paris for a
minute."

A Hectic Life

Globe-trotting is part of the job. Lynton, a platinum frequent flier, tallied 372,186 miles last year (not including trips in the corporate twin-engine prop plane), logged 1,316 cell-phone minutes in
March alone and fields about 400 e-mails a day. His children – 6, 4 and 2 years old – have already learned to hate daddy's cell phone and laptop.

But Lynton is no stranger to the pace. A boy wonder of the corporate world, he's a Harvard graduate who speaks four languages and has run Disney's Hollywood Pictures and Pearson PLC's
esteemed publishing house Penguin Group.

Since he arrived at AOL in December 1999, the company has increasingly leaned on him in its mounting push into foreign markets. He says it's a matter of opportunity – consumers overseas
are awakening to the Web, logging on in increasing numbers. "Now is the moment when AOL should make a push," he says.

The numbers back him up: In 1999, there were about 90 million Internet users in the United States and about 80 million users abroad, according to analysts. That U.S. lead is expected to
disappear by 2003, with about 180 million Internet users in the United States and about 240 million abroad.

But there is another trend that compels AOL to go overseas. About 60 million U.S. households, or 60 percent of the nation, will have Internet access by year's end, 11 percent more than last
year. But that is only half the growth rate over the previous year, according to Forrester Research Inc.

"Slowly but surely it is becoming saturated," says analyst Steve Harris of International Data Corp. "There are only so many people who can go online."

Introducing Connie

A big AOL breakthrough in Europe occurred in October 1998, when Connie was invented after intensive market research.

The experts made the character a woman, which they determined to be less threatening than a man. They gave her mass appeal, demographically situated as an older sister or mature
daughter.

Connie proved to be a hit, with hundreds of photograph requests arriving each month from fans. AOL accommodates them by sending postcard pictures of Connie – signed, of course.
Meanwhile, the British actress who plays the role – Rachel Willis – has been the subject of tabloid fodder. And AOL has used her likeness widely in its British marketing campaign, including
promotional appearances where look-alike models wear ginger-colored wigs and hand out free CDs.

Rosie Blake, for one, can attest to Connie's effectiveness. Last year, the 30-year-old Londoner was an Internet newbie who feared the technology but wanted to learn more, especially how to
e-mail her older brother Paul in Vancouver. "I was terrified, absolutely terrified," she says, "but I was also intrigued."

The Connie ads hooked her. "They were whizzy; you couldn't ignore them," Blake says. Then, AOL hit her with its distinctly American promotion – direct mail – enclosing a CD with 50 free
online hours in one of her book-club packages.

Before Connie's arrival in Britain, AOL had considered using inanimate characters to pitch its wares – such as an anthropomorphized computer – but officials decided against them when
research underscored the importance of humanizing the online experience.

Rival British Telecom went the other way, enlisting E.T., the cute alien from the '80s movie, as the television shill for its online service. BT says it is confident its alien can go head to head with
AOL's Connie – but AOL is growing faster, garnering about 2.5 million subscribers since launching the service in 1996.

That growth hasn't come cheap. Competitors say AOL has racked up massive marketing and capital expenditures to grab market share. AOL doesn't disclose such expenses, but
competitors reckon that AOL has lost hundreds of millions of dollars in its foray into Europe, spending heavily on huge television advertising campaigns and building the computer network to
serve its expanding base of subscribers.

"They've got a huge loss-making business in Europe," says Simon Preston, chief executive of Tiscali UK, a big Italian-owned Internet service provider. "They will have to think about an
alternative strategy in Europe."

Lynton disagrees. "We have a business model that works," he says, "and it clearly works in the United States."

What remains to be seen is how AOL will incorporate Time Warner to boost its presence overseas.

"Now it's AOL Time Warner; that's a totally different animal," says Preston Dodd, a senior analyst at Jupiter Research. "Where is that going to go? How are they going to leverage their
content? What are they going to do globally?"

Looking for Partners

For now, Lynton, AOL's point man on international operations, uses a variety of tactics to build the subscriber base. One is to form corporate partnerships.

At another meeting in AOL's London office, the talk focuses on a major German consumer electronics retailer that wants to get out of the Internet access business and become a partner of
AOL.

The benefits are unstated but understood: AOL would acquire subscribers – in company parlance, "subs," the driver of revenue growth. What the German retailer wants in return is another
matter: cash and equity.

"We would pay them bounties to migrate folks," says Lance Conn, AOL's top dealmaker in Europe. By "bounties" he is referring to the cost of transferring the retailer's customers to the AOL
service. "The trickier piece is: How do we give them upside on AOL stock?"

"It's expensive to us," Lynton says.

"Maybe we agree on an amount, say $100 per sub, half in cash and the right to buy if AOL IPOs," Conn says.

He is talking about potentially huge stuff. AOL would offer the retailer the right to buy stock in an initial public offering of shares in AOL's European operation. The payoff could be enormous:
Last year, AOL spun off its Latin American division, raising $200 million. With a bigger audience, Europe potentially would be worth billions.

Lynton anticipates a counteroffer from AOL's German rival. "Are we in a footrace?" he asks.

Conn beams a confident grin, which can only mean one thing – the retailer has approached AOL alone. "Their original thought," he says, "was that AOL would come and sprinkle its magic
dust."

The Look of an Upstart

For all its corporate muscle, AOL's operations abroad have the feel of an unceremonious upstart. It is just before 6 p.m. on the ninth floor of AOL's Hamburg offices, and Gunnar Bender has
his feet kicked up on his paper-strewn desk, overlooking the red-light district below and his four-person crew next door.

On his cabinet rests an AOL gingerbread cookie in the shape of a heart. A can of Spam sits on top of a stack of books. And then there is Bender's prized possession – a snapshot of himself
as an intern in AOL's legal department in 1997, standing next to Case, the AOL chairman. Both men are in shorts.

Bender, now 30 years old, is AOL's chief of public policy and government relations in Germany. He runs a mostly small-time lobbying campaign. He is not above faxing fliers to members of the
German government containing such statements as "Please help!"

Another prong of his attack: He helps orchestrate activities of a grass-roots group headed by a Berlin student. Bender and his 23-year-old compatriot strategize about regulatory issues and
how to get momentum. It helps when there's a groundswell of public support, not just a big company stirring things up. AOL assists the grass-roots group by partially funding newspaper
advertisements, giving it contact names and addresses and writing draft press releases for it.

"We make it sound professional," Bender says.

The big splash so far came last October after AOL helped the group come up with the idea of circulating a petition calling for a change in German regulations, which resulted in 40,000
signatures being delivered to state officials in a wheelbarrow – and a whole lot of press coverage.

AOL has employed another standby of the lobbying trade: gift-giving. Earlier this year, the company sent the head of AOL Germany on a four-city tour of universities. Bender, concerned about
whether students would show up, helped come up with the idea of handing out free plastic coffee mugs, emblazoned with the AOL running-man icon. Even with that inducement, however,
sometimes only 30 students showed up at his talks. "It was humbling," Bender says.

But not more so than the Becker scandal.

Boris Becker, the former tennis star and AOL's chief pitchman in Germany, recently fathered a Russian model's child out of wedlock, divorced his wife and made headlines over an alleged
tryst with a German rap singer.

If necessary, the company was prepared to remove Becker from the advertising campaign and replace him with its generic "At Home" television spots that feature soft music and happy family
members. But first AOL wanted to consult its market research to see how the public felt.

The results were off the charts. The scandal actually "had a positive impact," says an AOL marketing official. As it turns out, the adage holds – sex sells, and bad publicity is good publicity.
AOL's research showed that while Becker was an idol before the controversy, he was even more popular after the divorce because he's a superstar, and no one expects a superstar to lead a
normal life.

Not one to lose the advantage, AOL is now in production on a Becker television campaign that makes a lighthearted mention of his divorce. Sometimes, conquering the world requires a touch
of improvisation.

"As long as he doesn't do drugs," the AOL marketing official says, "that's fine."



To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 10:47:12 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2850
 
JNPR: EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER ON ALL PARAMETERS-RAISING RATING BACK TO 2S FROM

Salomon Smith Barney ~ October 12, 2001

Juniper Networks (JNPR)#
JNPR: EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER ON ALL 2S (Outperform, Speculative)
PARAMETERS-RAISING RATING BACK TO 2S FROM 3S Mkt Cap: $7,339.2 mil.

October 12, 2001 SUMMARY

* In this perfect storm the ship got home, Juniper
TELECOMMUNICATIONS delivers a strong quarter: raising rating to 2S from
EQUIPMENT 3S and price target to $26 and estimates.
B. Alexander Henderson * Quote Of The Call: "Events of September did not
impact our business".

* Raise the question: Have analysts over cut
Daryl Armstrong forecasts on service provider related spending? Its
looking likely that we are overly cautious on our
forecasts, Riverstone #(RSTN,1S, $11), Extreme
(EXTR,1H,$13.9), Foundry,(FDRY,1H, $11.6) Enterasys
(ETS, 1H, $8.3) Cisco (CSCO, 1H, $17) are likely
biggest beneficiaries.

* With very sharp gains from the bottom, we are back
to mid August price levels on most names in the
category.
* We draw a distinction between Datacom Vs Optical
names-networking gear delivers capacity in a linear
manner; optical equipment is laid in large
increments and has a long frequency between network
upgrade cycles.

FUNDAMENTALS
P/E (12/01E) 41.0x
P/E (12/02E) 45.3x
TEV/EBITDA (12/01E) 29.6x
TEV/EBITDA (12/02E) 29.6x
Book Value/Share (12/01E) NA
Price/Book Value NA
Dividend/Yield (12/01E) NA/NA
Revenue (12/01E) $915.0 mil.
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 35%
ROE (12/01E) NA
Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) NA

(a) Data as of most recent quarter
SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION
Price (10/10/01) $21.72 Current Rating 2S
52-Week Range $243.00-$9.29 Prior Rating 3S
Shares Outstanding(a) 337.9 mil. Current Target Price $26.00
Convertible No Previous Target Price $13.00
EARNINGS PER SHARE
FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year
12/00A Actual $0.03A $0.08A $0.17A $0.24A $0.53A
12/01E Current $0.25A $0.09A $0.10A $0.10E $0.53E
Previous $0.25A $0.09A $0.07E $0.07E $0.46E
12/02E Current $0.11E $0.12E $0.12E $0.14E $0.48E
Previous $0.07E $0.08E $0.09E $0.11E $0.35E
12/03E Current $0.14E $0.16E $0.17E $0.20E $0.67E

Previous $0.12E $0.13E $0.14E $0.15E $0.55E
First Call Consensus EPS: 12/01E $0.49; 12/02E $0.49; 12/03E $0.57

JUNIPER DELIVERS EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER AND NAVIGATES THE PERFECT STORM--RAISING
RATING, ESTIMATES, AND PRICE TARGETS
Juniper reported results well ahead of forecast with better than expected
margins, good revenue linearity, rising gross margins, declining DSO,
increasing deferred revenues, and declining operating costs. Additionally
they not only gave guidance for 4Q and for 2002, they gave guidance which
suggest rising revenues and earnings.


Raising Rating To 2S Accumulate From 3S Hold. Despite the recent
appreciation in JNPR shares off the bottom, the performance in the quarter
and the commentary from management lead us to believe Juniper may have
bottomed operationally and there is more upside to the earnings estimates
than downside risk.

Valuation An Issue But Not A Big One. While the shares have rallied sharply
they are at 44 times 2002 earnings and 32 times 2003 numbers. We think
Juniper can grow 35% over the next 3-5 years as data networking traffic
continues to expand and as the data networking sector continues to take share
from traditional equipment categories. Based on this growth rate, we think 2
times growth is attainable which implies a target of 70 times earnings in a
healthy economic backdrop.
Even if we discount the growth rate back to 25%,
this yields a 50 P/E on forward results. By the end of 2002, this yields a
target of price of $33.
We believe our target price of $26, which is based
on 55X 2002 estimates and 40 times 2003 estimates by the end of 2002 is
reasonable and defensible even if the growth target were as low as 20%
annually.

Critical Quote: "The Events Of September Did Not Impact Sales"--This Raises
The Critical Question: Did Most Analysts Over Cut Estimates.
With Juniper
indicating there was good linearity in the quarter and no disruption from the
events of September, and Cisco indicating there was good linearity in the
quarter and while sales dipped initially they rebound back quickly, the
evidence is building that the impact on telecom equipment spending may be in
fact less than feared. This raises the possibility that estimates may have
been over cut and that finally the long slide in expectations could be over.
This is not to suggest there isn't risk to consolidation and to further cape
cuts and to weakening domestic economic conditions or to a reverberation of
domestic pressures back into the international markets, but rather that the
impact of these considerations may have already been over estimated.

We Draw A Distinction Between Data Networking And Optical And Between Service
Provider Demand And Enterprise Demand. Capacity additions in optical come in
big slugs, where as networking gear is delivered in much finer smaller
capacity increments. As a result, demand for new optical systems is over a
longer frequency and demand for networking gear a much more rapid
periodicity. This is critical in accessing the timing of the market recovery
and the degree to which data traffic growth parallels equipment sales. We
strongly believe Juniper's ability to deliver revenue growth is the result of
its ability to continue to deliver new capacity in the form of line cards to
existing equipment AND new chassis
. As large carriers have completed their
networks the capacity deployed in the optical domain is substantial. The
amount of capacity which can be added by simply adding line cards is
substantially greater than that of the data networking gear which supports
the back bone. As a result, there is still a lengthy period of absorption
and a more gradual eventual recovery in the optical market.
The stability of the demand in the service provider market reflects the lack
of direct impact of the September events on the service providers business.
While many enterprises are directly impacted, the service providers are
likely to see only a minor hit to overall demand. As a result, it now
appears that many service providers continued operating without disruption to
orders for critical networking systems during September. This foots to the
commentary from Cisco and from Juniper

. Even Sonus (SONS, NR, $4) and ONI
(ONIS, 1S,$8.32) appear to have experienced pressures unrelated to the
September attacks. We think the impact on the enterprise arena is more
direct and we suspect the estimate adjustments in this arena may prove to be
more accurate than the cuts at the service provider oriented names.

Data Networking Names Likely The Prime Beneficiaries-Cisco, Riverstone,
Extreme, Foundry And Enterasys Likely Beneficiaries Of Recalibration Of
Demand Outlook. We think the data networking names are the primary
beneficiaries of the Juniper and Cisco commentaries. We have sharply cut
estimates on most of the names in this category and may have over done it.
Riverstone. The similarities with Juniper is tightest with Riverstone.
Riverstone sells data networking gear and sells exclusively to service
providers. We cut our estimates on Riverstone sharply. If Riverstone
experiences the same demand trends as Juniper and Cisco, our estimates and
most of the other estimates on the Street may prove to be too low. While
Riverstone looks expensive on our current forecasts, its actually relatively
inexpensive on the pre attack estimates. Riverstone is trading at 4.5 times
CY 2003 revenues as compared to Cisco at 6.0 and Juniper at 6.4 times.
We
cut our revenue forecast by over 30% as a result of the attack. We think
RSTN can regain the mid teens levels if our estimates prove overly cautious.
Our official target price remains $15
.
Extreme. While Extreme is selling at 77 times First Call estimated earnings
for 2002, we think this includes a number of estimates which likely over
reacted to the conditions of September. For instance, we cut our estimates
to breakeven for the quarter where from $0.07 per share prior forecast. With
half of Extreme's revenues coming from service providers and from market
niches which are at least as well insulated as Juniper's it is likely this
was over kill. EXTR at $13.90 is selling at an exceptionally low 3.6 times
2002 revenues even after the recent rally.
We think these shares should be
valued more reasonably at 5-6 times revenues. Moreover, the revenue
estimates are likely too low.

Foundry.

Foundry does over half its revenues in the service provider market
in arenas not distant from those of Juniper. We think the estimates may be
overly conservative and the stock is at an attractive valuation. At last
night final trade price of $11.60, FDRY is selling at 34 times 2002 earnings
and 25 times the First Call average for 2003. This low valuation and the
potential for overly conservative estimates makes these shares an attractive
way to play the category.
Enterasys. ETS is trading at 2.0 times 2002 revenues and 23.6 times 2002
First Call estimates. We think this low valuation makes these shares
attractive.
However, we note ETS is more of an enterprise stock and the
weakness in that end market may still be an issue even with Cisco's
commentary.

Optical Names--We Think They Will Rally In Sympathy But May Prove Less
Sustainable. We recommend investors move from them into the data networking
names on strength in the optical names.

JUNIPER OPERATIONAL DETAIL
Juniper posted 3Q results that can only be described in one word, stunning.
Against the backdrop of the tragic event of September 11th and a slowing
economic backdrop, the company punched through our revenue and EPS forecast.

The quarter showed strength across the board with improvement to balance
sheet metrics as well as the operating results
. Furthermore, management's
commentary of no negative impact to their business in September forces us to
revisit our investment thesis on the name.

Juniper's Strong Performance Requires Us To Revisit Our Forecasts. Due to
Juniper's outperformance and their guidance commentary, we are raising our
EPS and revenue estimates. For 4Q00, we are raising our revenue estimate to
$203.7 million from $183.8 million and our EPS estimate to $0.10 from $0.07.
This brings our full year 2001 estimates to $939.7 million from $900 million
for revenue and to $0.53 from $0.46 for earnings. For the full year 2002, we
are raising our revenue estimate to $935.6 million from $810.0 million and
our earnings estimate to $0.48 from $0.35 per share. We are also raising our
2003 earnings estimate from $0.55 per share to $0.67 per share and our
revenue estimate to $1,183 million from $1,031 million.

Juniper Cruises Through Revenue Expectations. In 3Q, Juniper posted revenues
of $202 million, representing flat Q-Q growth. The company shipped 1,026
units, up 14% from the 902 units shipped last quarter. The company shipped
12,736 ports, up 15% Q-Q and clear evidence of positive trends in their edge
router products. On a geographical front, roughly 34% of revenues were
generated internationally, up from 28% last quarter
. In terms of customer
contribution, Juniper had two 10% customers, Qwest and WorldCom. Ericsson,
one of their key marketing partners, also contributed over 10% of revenues
.
As a point of reference, in 2Q only WorldCom and Ericsson were 10% or greater
contributors. Management commented that book-to-bill was greater than one.

Management Claims No Impact To Their Business In September. Probably one of
the most controversial comments from management was that there was no impact
to their business related to the tragic events of September 11th during that
month. That is a key statement as we believe market valuations and consensus
expectations fully discounted an assumptions that little business was
consummated in that month, the most important month for a company with a
September quarter. If this assumption proves untrue, then there is a concern
that estimates for carrier-related data communications companies might have
been cut too much. We balance this line of commentary with the
acknowledgement that Juniper did see strong performance in their
international business, logging a number of new customer wins from these
markets. By our calculations, Juniper's domestic business was down 9% Q-Q
but international was up 21% Q-Q, in a period where international sales tend
to be weak due to seasonality.


Management Also Claims That Carrier Capex Cuts Are Largely The Optical
Vendors' Problem And Not Theirs--We Agree. Management set out to address a
number of issues that they believe have revolved around the name. One issue
is whether the network core is dead for the next few years.
Management's
argument is that while their might be meaningful excesses at the optical
level, investments at the IP level have been more incremental and so there is
less of an overhang.
Specifically, management noted that while some ports on
routers are running at less than capacity, they do not believe there are idle
core routers being inventoried by service providers. Consequently, while
acknowledging that data networking is not immune to the secular trend toward
lower capex, they argued most of the impact is likely to remain with the
optical vendors


Juniper Continues To Expand Its Customer Base. We attribute a good portion
of Juniper's success in the quarter to their ability to continue to garner
contract wins.
At the end of the quarter, management noted that they
believed they had over 500 customers in 45 countries. Some of the wins
logged since their last earnings report are as follows:
* Alltel: Juniper was selected to provide a wide variety of routers for

deployment into their network. While no terms were provided, we would note

that Alltel extends into 24 states and services over one million customers.
* Clear Communications: Juniper was selected to supply routers into Clear

Communications, a New Zealand service provider. The customer used the

routers to upgrade its national IP core and International Transit core

network. The routers were deployed in Christchurch, Wellington, and

Auckland as well as Los Angeles.
* PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk: Indonesia's state-owned incumbent service

provider selected Juniper to help it upgrade its IP network. The vendor

is selling its M10 routers into the carrier. The carrier believes this

upgrade provides it with opportunities to roll-out a number of new

services.
* Zhejiang Telecom: Ericsson announced it had been selected a follow-on

contract with Zhejiang Telecom, a subsidiary of China Telecom.
The vendor

expects to sell Juniper's M160 routers to this client that wants to upgrade

their IP network to OC-48.
* Fusion Communications: Fusion, a carrier offering VoIP services in Japan,

selected Juniper's routers for its network. Fusion's network runs at OC-48

speeds and has 18 access points.
* Telekomunikacja Polska: On October 2, Telekomunikacja Polska, the Polish

PTT, announced it would deploy M160 routers within its network. The

contract was won by Juniper's marketing partner, Ericsson. This network

already had M-series routers in a number of POPs including Warsaw, Gdansk,

and Lublin. The new routers are expected to help the carrier to increase

its network speed to OC-48 initially, and to OC-192 in the future.
* RedIRIS: On October 9th, Juniper announced that it had been selected to

supply routers for deployment into the first phase of its high-speed IP

network. RedIris is the communications network for over 250 R&D

universities and facilities in Spain. The network serves over 1 million

people in 40 cities. The network roll-out involves the deployment of M20

and M40 routers in eight cities in Spain, which will be connected by OC-48

links. The completion of the network will allow the carrier to deploy IP

multicasting and DiffServ class of service to offer differentiated

services.

* DirectTV Broadband: DirectTV Broadband announced they intend to deploy

Juniper's routers throughout its North American domestic network. DirectTV

Broadband is a residential DSL provider. The carrier is deploying

Juniper's M160 Internet backbone routers within its Internet backbone and

M5 is the access portion of the network.
Margins Improved As Further Bolstering Results. Gross margins came in at
60.4%, up 20 basis points sequentially and exceeding our forecast by 30 basis
points.
Management attributed the solid performance to stable pricing and
the settlement of their obligations to their contract manufacturers
.

Operating margins came in at 20.4%, up from 16.9% in 2Q and beat our forecast
by over 460 basis points.
This outperformance comes even though G&A was
inflated by a $2 million provision for bad debt. Juniper's bottom-line
results came in at $0.10, beating forecasts by $0.03.


Juniper's Balance Sheet Strengthens In The Quarter. Juniper's balance sheet
points to the quality of their 3Q operating results. Their cash and
investments position increased by $70 million to almost $1.1 billion.
The
company's DSOs fell by 12 days to 50. This sharp improvement was in spite of
the fact the international component of their business, which generally has
longer collection cycles, surged in the quarter. Management attributed this
strength to the quality of their customer base and a disciplined approach to
cash collection. Deferred revenues also continued their upward trend of
recent quarters,
increasing by over $2 million.