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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (54281)	10/18/2001 4:49:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT re oil drilling stocks: I used to own SLB and RIG, but haven't looked at the sector in a while. I think they are still probably the quality big companies, certain survivors. I'm not sure I'd make a bet on 80$/B oil. It depends on events impossible to predict ahead of time; the scenario I presented is only one of several possible futures. OTOH, a global recession, which implies falling demand for oil, seems a certainty. Which is why RIG and SLB recently retested the 10/98 lows. In the energy industry, the oil drillers are in the same situation as the semi-equips in theirs. The relationship between oil prices and SLB is similar to the relationship between fab capacity utilization (or chip ASPs) and AMAT. Business, for AMAT and SLB, is either non-existent, or huge, like a light switch being turned on or off. No in-between. No dimmer switch. Which is reflected in the stock chart. Buying as they test multi-year lows is usually the safest time to buy.