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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (130134)	10/18/2001 6:19:21 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

ild -- Possible mall casualties (if bad guys go boom) Hot Topic (HOTT) is (almost) entirely mall based, and IMO is a bloated pig of a stock. A near-term event could be especially devastating, as Halloween is a really big season for them (selling to malcontents and miscreants and all). Children's Place (PLCE) has most of its units in malls too. I happen to like the stock, though; good unit economics and gross margins are going to really improve since they buy in Asia so their COGS are WAY down. California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) is mostly in malls. I don't like the unit economics @ CPKI and wouldn't like the stock even w/o event risk. Note that this is a highly regional play, though; about 1/2 of their units are in CA. Williams Sonoma (WSM) is mostly in really high-end malls (note that they own Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, and Hold Everything as well). Economics there always sucked but they have new, credible mgmt. that is working to fix that. Very tied to high-end consumer. Note that they have HUGE catalog operation (I do 85% of my Christmas shopping from their various catalogs) that could limit the impact of mall-specific troubles. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) I think is mostly either attached to high-end malls or other shopping areas. Event risk here can be big; their units do $13-15mm and are way expensive, and 11 Sept caused gigantic revenue declines at their Las Vegas and Chicago (next to Sears Tower) properties. CAKE unit economics are pretty good, but they only have a handful of units so just a few sucking wind for a couple weeks really hits earnings. A food-related scare would devastate these guys. Ann Taylor (ANN) is IMO a POS going to single digits whether or not more stuff blows up. Galyans (GLYN) is a high-end sporting goods retailer that is anchoring a bunch of high-end shopping malls. This is the single-worst new retail idea since Restoration Hardware (RSTO); its a recent IPO though so float is way small. On Talbots catalogs, the number has been 16-17% of revenue, if memory serves. Cheers