SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Brumar89 who wrote (6059)10/18/2001 6:03:57 PM
From: epsteinbd  Respond to of 281500
 
It can be probably stated that Al Qaeda has no real mean of mass killing, or it would have used it by now.
After all their first weapons were knives cutters and surprise, and the next weapon is stamps and envelopes. What's inside doesn't matter as a weapon, since it was most probably provided by some source that is still to be discovered, and the Tals won't get any bio weapon that could be traced to the owner.



To: Brumar89 who wrote (6059)10/18/2001 6:13:55 PM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 281500
 
More things to consider about the anthrax letters below. Another international mailing of anthrax - Atlanta to Kenya in addition to the earlier Malaysia to Microsoft mailing.

Re. the milling of anthrax spores into a fine powder for easy air dispersion - I wonder how hard that is to do? What level of sophistication does it take?

quote.bloomberg.com

10/18 10:02
Kenyan Anthrax Cases Confirmed; Letter to UN Checked (Update2)
By Mike Zemene

Nairobi, Kenya, Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Four members of a family in Kenya were exposed to anthrax from a letter mailed in Atlanta, the first confirmed cases outside the U.S. since contaminated mail began arriving last month, Agence France-Presse reported, citing the Kenyan health minister.
In the U.S., the latest case of the bacteria involves a CBS employee in the New York City office of news anchor Dan Rather who tested positive for anthrax, the Associated Press reported.
In Kenya, two other letters besides the one from Atlanta are being tested for anthrax, including one sent to the United Nations Environment Program in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, UN spokesman Tore Brevik said in a telephone interview from Nairobi.
``In all the cases, mail containing powder-like material was found, and so far one has tested positive for anthrax by stain and smear,'' Health Minister Sam Ongeri said, according to AFP.
The outbreak has raised fears among veterans of United Nations weapons inspections of an organized attack.
``This really reduces the probability that it's some independent nutter out there,'' Charles Duelfer, the UN's deputy chief inspector in Iraq, told the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper.
The U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed in an attack in 1998 that the U.S. says was masterminded by Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington. Letters and packages tainted with anthrax began arriving at U.S. offices after last month's attacks. The U.S. has not yet linked the anthrax cases to bin Laden.
In Paris, the French parliament went on alert and three employees were hospitalized for observation after a letter containing white powder was found there this morning, National Assembly spokeswoman Floriane Fontaine said. A back entrance and the room where the letter was found have been sealed.
The U.S. House of Representatives cancelled today's legislative business after more than 30 employees tested positive for exposure to anthrax. New York Governor George Pataki also closed his Manhattan office after tests indicated the bacteria's presence in one room.
United Nations
The letter to the Kenyan family was postmarked from Atlanta on Sept. 8, three days before the attacks on New York and Washington, and also had postmarks from Miami, AFP said, citing Ongeri. No details of the family were released.
The letter sent to an unnamed UN employee bore Pakistani postage stamps, the agency's spokesman in Kenya, Brevik, was quoted as saying by AFP. The third letter in Kenya suspected of having being contaminated with anthrax was posted from Nairobi to a businessman in the central town of Nyeri, Ongeri said.
Strains of the deadly bacteria discovered earlier in Florida and New York matched, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, indicating they may have a common origin. Four people have been diagnosed with anthrax infections, two in Florida and two in New York. One person has died.
The U.S. House closed to allow buildings in the Capitol to be examined. The Senate will stay in session, while testing of its offices continues, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle said.
``We will not let this stop the work of the Senate,'' Daschle said.
New York
In New York City, Pataki said tests conducted in a room used by his security detail ``indicated the likelihood that anthrax was present.'' The 75 to 80 employees who work in the Manhattan office will take antibiotics as a precaution even though there is no indication of exposure, Pataki said. The governor said he was taking antibiotics but will not be tested for exposure.
The spores may have been carried into the room by members of the security detail who accompanied Pataki to two television networks where letters containing anthrax were sent, Pataki said.
At NBC News in New York, where one employee developed anthrax after exposure to a contaminated letter, 500 people tested negative for the bacteria. Tests on a ventilation system at ABC News in New York, where an employee's baby son was infected, didn't show any presence of anthrax.
Tests determined that about 25 members of Daschle's staff plus about six Capitol Hill police officers were exposed to anthrax after a letter carrying the bacteria was sent to his office, Daschle said. They are taking antibiotics and ``the good news is that everyone will be okay,'' Daschle said.
Exposure and Infection
Four people have been infected by anthrax in the current outbreak, including 63-year-old Robert Stevens, a photographer for American Media Inc. in Boca Raton, Florida. Stevens, the lone fatality, died of the inhaled form of the disease.
Exposure to anthrax spores and infection with the bacteria are two different issues, according to David Siegrist, a bioterrorism expert from the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Nasal swab samples from U.S. textile workers in the late 1900s commonly tested positive for anthrax exposure without the workers contracting the disease, he said.
Even though bacterial spores have been found in a Senate office building, it's unlikely the concentration is enough to sicken people, Siegrist said.
Still, the anthrax strain was in a powder that had been finely milled to disperse it easily through the air, which raises concerns about the potential for a wider attack, Siegrist said.
``I am very concerned'' by the apparent sophistication of the powder sent to Daschle, Siegrist said. ``All (anthrax powder) is bad, and some of it is quite bad.''
Common Variety
Anthrax is not passed from person to person. A large-scale attack would only be successful if perpetrators were able to process dried anthrax spores into a fine powder that could then be dispersed from an airplane, through ventilation units, or via mass transportation systems, experts say.
Major General John S. Parker, the commanding general of the American Medical Research and Materiel Command at Fort Detrick, Maryland, where the anthrax was tested, said yesterday that it is a ``common variety form'' and therefore hadn't been genetically manipulated to be more virulent.
Parker said the strain could be treated with antibiotics.
In Australia's capital Canberra, parts of the federal parliament buildings were blocked off by police and fire officers, and nine people were quarantined after a staff member was burned by a suspicious substance when opening mail.



To: Brumar89 who wrote (6059)10/18/2001 7:07:25 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
On the other hand, you'd think al Qaida would go for bigger, showier actions. That's what they've done in the past - WTC, Pentagon, embassies.

If al Qaeda is responsible for both WTC/Pentagon & the bio-attack, it is still consistant, I think, with a complex overall strategy.

Stated Goal - US out of Middle East(ME). Period. Israel is an afterthought, I think, especially with the US out.

Unstated Goal - create the conditions for the foundation of a much larger Islamic-based nation state that -- one day -- can actually challenge the US. An Islamic Superpower.

Game Plan - They can't destroy the US outright - not today and not soon - which means to get to stated and unstated goals they have to get there incrementally. First, the US has to voluntarily leave or be forced to leave by be public or world opinion. To get to the second, unstated game plan, they need to both weaken the US and strengthen their own power base through a larger nation developed through coalition or revolution

- continue to attack until the US public has had enough and forces policy change. Given the pain the US suffered in previous wars and police actions that really were not the US battle, I don't see this working. Its possible that the attackers know this too, but they may have underestimated the US / US public / world opinion.

- continue to attack until the US is provoked to escalate the response either in nature (nuclear for example, unlikely at this stage of the game) or in scope (include other countries -- which has basically already become policy). The tactic here is to unite the Islamic world or big chunks of it; cause some Islamic governments to topple; suddenly the conflict is covering a lot more ground and perhaps new nation-states are formed in the long run with larger resources....

[is al Qaeda that forward thinking that they intentionally are playing on the dirty relationships that they have in the ME with other governments, knowing that the US would challenge many, not just one, government?]

- provoke the US into doing something that wil destroy its coalition. Some might feel a nuclear attack by the US on any country might do this. If they could make the US a pariah among nations it would sure help. But the US first has to fall into this trap. I can think of only one scenario at the moment - construct a scenario where the US is attacked by a true weapon of mass destruction and pin the blame on an Arab state - say Iraq - the US retailiates with a nuclear strike - and evidence is later shown that Iraq is not behind it. Faniciful thinking here, I know.

- continue to attack the US with one goal of actually weakening it. I keep imagining their minds as wanting to "give the US public a taste of what it is like to live in the ME and see how they like it". i.e. food, health, personal security become targets. Seems a stretch but they may be thinking big here. Certainly they would not be sorry to see fear in the public as its good for their goals and good for their own morale

What makes the US great and strong?

Economy
- WTC is an obvious symbolic target.
- Question, is the impact to travel and productivity intentional on their part? If so... the bioattack *is* having impacts to productivity
- Aircraft attack has affected productivity
- Aircraft attack has affected travel sector profoundly
- economy already positioned for slow down or recession = timing

Military
- hard to fight on one battle ground them as a nation state
- terrorism, hosted within many nation states (unofficially supported or not), creates not one battle field but many, perhaps dozens

Domestic Security / Health & Welfare
- Aircraft based attacks has resulted in security forces concentrating on air travel; other modes might well be under attack in the future to further destablitize transportation
- bioattack is impacting health care in some locations;
- bioattack is further spreading thin available investigative & security personnel

Press / Freedom of Speach / Public Resolve
- bioattack is a symbolic attack on the press
- bioattack is a good terror weapon to influence public resolve
- the propaganda value is immense. Unseen forces causing the US public to cower. Think of how this plays for the home town team of fanatics in the M.E. This is how superheros are made, and may be an extension of the legend of OBL and the Taleban / Mujahadeen (sp?) who "defeated" the mighty Soviet empire. Big big points with the home team. You need the public to think you are a winner if you are going to call on the public to overthrow a government. Everyone loves a winner, after all...

So...

I think the bottom line is this is a big plan, not a short term endeavour. When our leaders talk about the attacks as not just against a target but "against our way of life" I really hope they believe that and are not just making sound bytes up, because increasingly I think it is true.

For anyone that doesn't know me, I am not characterizing this as an Islamic war. I think the perpetrators would like to, and may even believe it. But from our perspective its just a war for power, territory and control over people, just like all other wars.

Just some thoughts, not all well thunk through yet.