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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (59217)	10/18/2001 8:50:31 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I hope you are not right about this combjelly. If you are Intel will make losses but so will AMD. If they combine for 300%+ capacity it will be a long time before either company is making a lot of money. Tim

To: combjelly who wrote (59217)	10/19/2001 12:04:13 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Combjelly, I only think it's premature to say that Intel's .13u manufacturing plans will allow it to produce as large an oversupply as you are suggesting. Earlier this year, Intel had 6 .18u fabs, and they produced mostly Coppermine cores. Coppermine is at 90mm^2. Now they will need to transition to fabs that will produce mostly Northwood cores at 140mm^2. This will require more fab space. I think you are grossly overestimating how much they can actually make with the production that they plan to have. Likewise, I think AMD supplying up to 33% of the market with one fab is just wishful thinking. They are producing as much as they can now, which accounts for 21% of the market, and that's with two fabs. With defect rates, yield problems, research, boutique turns, and other failures, the amount of die that a fab can produce gets lowered significantly. AMD won't be able to supply as much as they think, especially when they transition to SOI, with even lower yields than they have now. wanna_bmw