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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blitzfund who wrote (55797)	10/19/2001 7:54:02 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Ahh, I see your point! And it is always the implied assumptions which throw people off. Well here are my assumptions: 1. while I can retire in several years (maybe sooner if Maryland gives an "early out"), I am NOT dependent on any monies other than my employer's retirement plan and SSA benefits - I am not risk adverse; 2. as I have mentioned here many times, my 401K stuff is in Legg-Mason Value Trust - which is oriented to non-speculative stuff! Interestingly, over the past 5 or so years, it has performed much better than the most speculative options we have available as part of our 401K accounts; 3. I view this horrific sell-off as a bubble bursting in the speculative stuff... while the equities with something to back them up are doing much better than the internet puffs; 4. Yes, I would begin to worry if we break much below the lows of the September sell-off. I might just exit and get back in at much lower levels should that happen... so if you want to attribute a backup plan to me, that would be it! To summarize: a 70% sell-off in NAS from here would certainly hurt my mutual fund... maybe it would sell-off as much as 40% - however, based on the 1929 results, I would expect it to return to profitability within several years of that drop. It is the people who have suffered as much as 95% losses in investments in NAS equities who will have lost the most because it may take 20 years to get back to old highs... again based on prior 1929 data. What? Me worry? <g>