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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (43364)10/19/2001 9:51:01 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
my four central bigpicture concerns:

1. oil shipping lanes are threatened and disrupted
(slam dunk eventually, with barrel prices jumping, and economic recovery thwarted)

2. Egypt's Mubarek and Jordan's Abdullah are toppled
(slam dunk eventually, with regional instability worsening)

3. bio-attack causing real deaths with bigger numbers
(real big variable now)

4. BinLaden bombing Moslem mosques, blaming the USA
(his frustration with cooperating Arab/Moslem nations is growing with probably desperation)

all are bad for stocks

balancing hopes:
A. BinLaden is hunted and killed very soon
(not very likely, this guy is a desert fox)

B. the AlQaeda network is rooted out and neutralized
(not very likely, these guys are spooks)

C. the West becomes independent of Arab oil
(not likely for another 10-15 years)

D. Moslems reject BinLaden on world stage
(not likely, given illiteracy and poverty -- root causes)

oy, Jim