Return to The Front Page
What should be the right money supply rate of growth?
by Dr Frank Shostak
TNA News with Commentary
Weekend 13-14 October 2001
Most economists are of the view that a growing economy requires a growing money stock. After all, it is held that a growing economy gives rise to a greater demand for money which must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services which in turn will destabilise the economy and lead to an economic recession, or even worse - depression.
Since growth in money supply is of such importance it is not surprising that economists are continuously searching for the right percentage growth, or the optimum rate of growth in money supply. The most vocal economists on this issue are the followers of Professor Milton Friedman — also known as monetarists — who want the central bank to target the money supply at a fixed percentage. They hold that if this percentage is maintained over a prolonged period of time it will usher in an era of economic stability.
The whole idea that money must grow in order to sustain economic growth gives the impression that money somehow sustains economic activity. If this were to be the case then most Third World economies would have by now eliminated poverty through printing large quantities of money. According to Rothbard:
“Money, per se, cannot be consumed and cannot be used directly as a producers’ good in the productive process. Money per se is therefore unproductive; it is dead stock and produces nothing. Land or capital is always in the form of some specific good, some specific productive instrument. Money always remains in someone’s cash balance.”
Money’s main job is simply to fulfil the role of the medium of exchange. Money doesn’t sustain or fund real economic activity. The means of sustenance, or funding, is provided by saved real goods and services. By fulfilling its role of the medium of exchange money just facilitates the flow of goods and services. Historically, many different goods have been used as the medium of exchange. On this Mises observed that over time “…There would be an inevitable tendency for the less marketable of the series of goods used as media of exchange to be one by one rejected until at last only a single commodity remained, which was universally employed as a medium of exchange; in a word money.”
Through the ongoing process of selection over thousands of years people settled on gold as general medium of exchange. Most mainstream economists, while accepting this historical evolution, casting doubt that gold can fulfil the role of money in the modern world. It is held that relative to the growing demand for money as a result of growing economies, the supply of gold is not adequate. Furthermore, if one takes into the account that a large portion of gold mined is used for jewellery, then this leaves the stock of money almost unchanged over the period of time. In short, it is held the free market, by failing to provide enough gold, will cause money supply shortages. This in turn runs the risk of destabilising the economy. It is for this reason that most economists, even those who express sympathy toward the idea of a free market, endorse the view that the money supply must be controlled by the government.
But does this make sense?
When we talk about demand for money what we really mean is the demand for money’s purchasing power. After all people don’t want a greater amount of money in their pockets but greater purchasing power in their possession. On this Mises wrote: “The services money renders are conditioned by the height of its purchasing power. Nobody wants to have in cash holding a definite number of pieces of money or a definite weight of money; he wants to keep a cash holding of a definite amount of purchasing power.”
In a free market, in similarity to other goods, the price of money is determined by supply and demand. Consequently, if there is less money its exchange value will increase. Conversely, the exchange value will fall when there is more money. In short, within the framework of a free market there cannot be such thing as “too little” or “too much” money. As long as the market is allowed to clear no shortage of money can emerge. Consequently, once the market has chosen a particular commodity as money the given stock of this commodity will be always sufficient to secure the services that money provides. Hence, in a free market the whole idea of the optimum rate of growth of money is absurd. According to Mises:
“As the operation of the market tends to determine the final state of money’s purchasing power at a height at which the supply of and the demand for money coincide, there can never be an excess or deficiency of money. Each individual and all individuals together always enjoy fully the advantages which they can derive from indirect exchange and the use of money, no matter whether the total quantity of money is great, or small…the services which money renders can be neither improved nor impaired by changing the supply of money…The quantity of money available in the whole economy is always sufficient to secure for everybody all that money does and can do.”
But how can we be sure that the supply of a selected commodity as money will not start to rapidly expand on account of unforeseen events? Would it not undermine people’s well being? If this were to happen then people would probably abandon this commodity and would settle on some other commodity. Individuals that are striving to preserve their life and well being will not choose a commodity that is subject to a steady decline in its purchasing power as money. This is the essence of the market selection process and the reason why it took several thousands years for gold to be selected as the most marketable commodity. In short, the prolonged market selection process raises the likelihood that gold is the most suitable commodity to fulfil the role of money.
But even if we were to agree that the world under the gold standard would have been a much better place to live than under the present monetary system, surely we must be practical and come up with solutions that are in tune with contemporary reality. Namely, that in the world we presently live in, we do have central banks and we are not on the gold standard. Given these facts of reality what then must be the correct money supply rate of growth? It is, however, not possible to devise a scheme for a “correct” money rate of growth while central authorities have coercively displaced the market-selected money with paper money. Here is why.
Originally paper money was not regarded as money but merely as a representative of gold. Various paper certificates represented claims on gold stored with the banks. Holders of paper certificates could convert them into gold whenever it was deemed necessary. Because people found it more convenient to use paper certificates to exchange for goods and services, these certificates come to be regarded as money.
Paper certificates that are accepted as the medium of exchange open the scope for fraudulent practice. Banks could now be tempted to boost their profits by lending certificates that were not covered by gold. In a free market economy a bank which over-issues its paper certificates will quickly find out that the exchange value of its certificates in terms of goods and services will fall. To protect their purchasing power, holders of the over-issued certificates naturally attempt to convert them back to gold. If all of them were to demand gold back at the same time this would bankrupt the bank. In a free market then, the threat of bankruptcy would restrain banks issuing paper certificates unbacked by gold. On this Mises wrote:
“People often refer to the dictum of an anonymous American quoted by Tooke: ‘Free trade in banking is free trade in swindling.’ However, freedom in the issuance of banknotes would have narrowed down the use of banknotes considerably if it had not entirely suppressed it. It was this idea which Cernuschi advanced in the hearings of the French Banking Inquiry on October 24, 1865: ‘I believe that what is called freedom of banking would result in a total suppression of banknotes in France. I want to give everybody the right to issue banknotes so that nobody should take any banknotes any longer.’”
This means that in a free market economy paper money cannot assume a “life of its own” and become independent of commodity money.
The government can however, bypass the free market discipline. It can issue a decree that makes it legal for the over-issued bank not to redeem paper certificates into gold. Once banks are not obliged to redeem paper certificates into gold, opportunities for large profits are created that set incentives to pursue an unrestrained expansion of the supply of paper certificates. The uncurbed expansion of paper certificates raises the likelihood of setting off a galloping rise in the prices of goods and services that can lead to the breakdown of the market economy.
To prevent such a breakdown, the supply of the paper money must be managed. The main purpose of managing the supply is to prevent various competing banks from over issuing paper certificates and from bankrupting each other. This can be achieved by establishing a monopoly bank i.e. a central bank, which will manages the expansion of paper money. According to Hoppe:
“If one is to succeed in replacing commodity money by fiat money, then, an additional requirement must be fulfilled: Free entry into the note-production business must be restricted, and a money monopoly must be established.”
To assert its authority the central bank introduces its paper certificates which replaces the certificates of various banks. (The central bank’s money purchasing power is established on account of the fact that various paper certificates, which carry purchasing power, are exchanged for the central bank money at a fixed rate. In short, the central bank paper certificates are fully backed up by banks certificates, which have the historical link to gold).
The central bank paper money, which is declared as the legal tender, also serves as a reserve asset for banks. This enables the central bank to set a limit on the credit expansion by the banking system.
It would appear that the central bank can manage and stabilise the monetary system. The truth is the exact opposite. To manage the system, the central bank must constantly create money out of “thin air” to prevent banks from bankrupting each other. This leads to persistent declines in money’s purchasing power, which destabilises the entire monetary system. This tendency to destabilise the system is also reinforced by the fact that a money monopolist naturally has the incentive to look after his own interest. According to Hoppe:
“He can print notes at practically zero cost and then turn around and purchase real assets (consumer or producer goods) or use them for the repayment of real debts. The real wealth of the non-bank public will be reduced-they own less goods and more money of lower purchasing power. However, the monopolist’s real wealth will increase-he owns more non-money goods (and he always has as much money as he wants). Who, in this situation, except angels, would not engage in a steady expansion of the money supply and hence in a continuous depreciation of the currency?”
Observe that while in the free market people will not accept a commodity as money if its purchasing power is subject to a persistent decline, in the present environment central authorities are coercively imposing money that suffers from a steady decline in its purchasing power.
Since the present monetary system is fundamentally unstable, the central bank is compelled to print money out of “thin air” to prevent the collapse of the system. It doesn’t really matter what scheme the central bank adopts as far as monetary injections are concerned. Regardless of the mode of monetary injections the boom bust cycles will become more ferocious as time goes by. Even Milton Friedman’s scheme to fix the money rate growth at a given percentage won’t do the trick. After all a fixed percentage growth is still money growth, which leads to the exchange of nothing for something i.e., economic impoverishment and the boom-bust cycle.
What about the removal of the central bank all together and keeping the current stock of paper money unchanged? Would it not do the trick? No, it will not. An unchanged money stock will cause an almost immediate breakdown of the present monetary system. After all the present system survives because the central bank — by means of monetary injections — prevents the fractional reserve banking from going bankrupt. It is therefore not surprising that the central bank must always resort to large monetary injections if there is a threat from various political or economic shocks. For instance, to prevent possible disruptions to the monetary system on account of the 11 of September terrorist attack the Fed pumped over $100 billion in one week.
Observe that the same fate is likely with other schemes. The only difference is of course that in other schemes it will take some time before the final breakdown will occur. How long the central bank can keep the present system going is dependent upon the state of the real pool of funding. As long as this pool is still growing the central bank is likely to succeed in keeping the system alive. Once however, the real pool of funding begins to stagnate, or worse shrink, then no monetary pumping will be able to prevent the plunge of the system.
In a true free market, if as a result of a major upheaval people raise their demand for gold, this would lift money’s purchasing power and that would be about it - no further disruptions would emerge. The monetary system will remain intact. Also, as opposed to the present monetary system, money can’t disappear in a true free market and set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycles. In fractional reserve banking when money is repaid and the bank doesn’t renew the loan, money evaporates. Because the loan has originated out of nothing, obviously it couldn’t have had an owner. In contrast in a free market when the gold is repaid it is passed back to the original lender- the money stock stays intact.
Conclusion:
Since the present monetary system is fundamentally unstable there cannot be a “right” money supply rate of growth. Whether the central bank injects money in accordance with economic activity, or fixes the rate of growth, it further destabilises the system. The only way to make the system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over. In a truly free market there is no need to be concerned with the issue of the “right” money supply rate of growth. Consequently, no institution is required to regulate the supply of money in a free market. Furthermore, while the free market money is associated with rising real wealth, the present monetary system is inherently inflationary and leads to economic impoverishment.
newaus.com.au |
