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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (61750)10/19/2001 2:02:10 PM
From: Dennis Doubleday  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74651
 
> I pay $40 every month for my cable modem service and am happy to do so because I'm getting value for my money.

That's not comparable at all. That's a continuing fee for continuing access to a resource. Until Windows XP, consumer software has never been viewed as something that could be taken away from you if you don't keep paying for it. That will create resistance to initial purchase. MS is just betting that lost revenue from annoyed customers will be exceeded by continuing revenue from those who stay with it.

> When I buy a car I know I'll be paying to refuel, maintain, and insure it for as long as I own it and that's OK too

But you don't have to pay the dealer again to get the 2003 model unless you choose to. I WILL have to pay Microsoft again even if I don't choose to upgrade Windows XP II. That knowledge means I will choose not to get Windows XP in the first place.

One thing worries me, though: MS can't retroactively revoke my license to use Windows NT 4.0 or Windows 98, can they?



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (61750)10/20/2001 4:13:03 AM
From: dybdahl  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74651
 
It would be a very natural thing to do, if:

1) Customers were used to paying regularly. 2 Years is a very unnatural period.
2) The competition works the same. On Macintosh and Linux you don't have to pay after two years.

There are many shops that sell Macintosh and Windows computers together, and I believe Macintosh has a bigger advantage than ever before:

- Mac has less vira (yes, I know, it's because of market share and public image)
- Mac is easier to use (that's what most people believe)
- Mac doesn't expire
- Mac is more likely to be Linux compatible in the future (it already is to some extent)
- Mac design is cool
- Mac can do whatever most people need to do.

In cases where low cost is important, I would expect to find Linux with StarOffice 6 on consumer PCs in ordinary shops 2002 or 2003.

In business, 2 years is far too little time. Remember that there are still tons of Windows 3.1 and Windows 95 machines out there being used daily.

Lars.