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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (9072)	10/19/2001 2:13:06 PM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 19219

<<What are your biggest reasons for your shift away from Bearish posture near-term?>> J.T. ... great question, I will answer you later or over the weekend ... Ken

To: J.T. who wrote (9072)	10/19/2001 4:56:53 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

JT; I sort of like this late day upturn as it became broad.. Gaps are filled , ( maybe some profit taking by Tuesday ) but the main rally looks intact. Jim

To: J.T. who wrote (9072)	10/21/2001 10:39:19 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

<<What are your biggest reasons for your shift away from Bearish posture near-term?>> J.T. - An excellent question. To answer you, it is important to understand the depth of my bearishness that began as an uneasy feeling in January of 2000, and blossomed full scale by that July when I started buying S&P puts and staying at least 50% in cash when previously I had been 100% invested in common stocks. My bearishness overall has not changed. I believe that we are in the early stages of what will prove to be the most severe recession since the 1930s. I do not believe that the U.S. and world economies will show significant signs of improvement until after mid-2002 and probably not until early 2003 at the earliest. I am anything but bullish. However, for at least the last six months, I expected the equity markets to collapse during the ongoing earnings reporting period (to S&P 750 or lower). I still believe that we are heading much lower, but maybe now, it will be put-off until after the first of the year. If the earnings reports of last week did not significantly discourage investors, and apparently, they did not, then not withstanding another September 11 type event, equities will probably not head straight down from here. Before we reach the bottom of this, there is probably at least one more bear market rally, that could be sharp and prolonged until investors genuinely realize that economic recovery is a long way off. The 'killer event' that will lead to the final bottom in this cycle in my mind will be the severe credit and banking problems that are just starting to surface. My strategy will probably include daily trading of S&P futures, holding on to the two stocks I really believe in, yet staying at least 50% in cash. I did buy another S&P March put late Friday, but it is well out of the money with a strike price of 1000. Ken Wilson