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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TGL WHAAAAAAAT! Alerts, thoughts, discussion. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bernard Ng who wrote (94234)10/19/2001 2:30:28 PM
From: George Victor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 150070
 
Bill Bonner has been saying the same thing for many weeks now ....

Sept. 17 (S&P 500 previous trading day's low = 1073.15) - For reference, readers might want to know that stocks today are about 135% of GDP...nearly twice as high as
ever previously recorded. (The previous record was hit in August 1929).


Sept. 19 (S&P 500 previous trading day's low = 1029.25) - At 26 times earnings, the S&P 500, even after a horrendous year, was still selling at a higher P/E than the peak of the great bull markets in 1929 and 1964.

And after declining from 180% to around 120%, the ratio between the total capitalization of stocks and GDP was still over two times as large as its historical average. For stocks to return to their normal value in the economy, they'd still have to decline by another $8 trillion dollars.


Sept. 25 (S&P 500 previous trading day's low = 965.80) - Certainly, stocks are relatively cheap - relative, that is, to where they were trading in March 2000. But, as a hedge fund manager I spoke with yesterday told me, "It would be hard to say that stocks are absolutely cheap. They just aren't." Even now, the S&P 500 index sells for about 25 times earnings. Valuations like this used to occur only at market tops...

and also ....

Sept. 26 - "After 1929, the strangely forgotten (or covered up) fact is that the Fed cut interest rates rapidly from 6 to 2 percent by early 1930. Pundits of the day called
the non-response to the cuts 'pushing on a string.'"

Greenspan has been pushing on a string too. Rates have been cut from 6.5% to 3%, with results comparable to those of '29.


dailyreckoning.com