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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (59322)	10/19/2001 3:32:09 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Respond to of 275872

Combjelly, Re: "I don't know what the projected wafer starts are for those fabs are, do you? I know that Intel has some fabs with the capability of 7k-10k wafer starts per week, I suspect that the new fabs aren't going to be smaller. Yes, not all of those wafer starts will be for processors, that is why I estimated production to be at the rate of the Dresden fab. If you have better information, please share it." I know just as much as you do, more or less, but I am also applying the principle of Occam's Razor. Some people would like to think that just because AMD is gearing up to oversupply the market, that Intel is doing just the same. While you may have evidence to support that theory, if you look for a simpler explanation, you'll find that Intel simply needs the extra capacity to deal with moving a chip to mainstream that's 55% larger than the one they currently have (Northwood vs Coppermine). All other chip designs pale in comparison to the volumes generated by these two. You're trying to second guess Intel's future manufacturing capabilities when you already know their current capabilities, which is to provide about 30-35 million CPUs per quarter. Right now, they have reduced volumes because of a fall in demand by transitioning fab space to Pentium 4, so now they are producing around 25-30 million (if you want to believe current market research data). If volumes return to growth next year, not only will Intel need about 20% more CPU production, but they will also need 55% more space to manufacture larger die. Very logically, they need more manufacturing capacity. I don't need inside information to tell me that, and so shouldn't you. wanna_bmw

To: combjelly who wrote (59322)	10/19/2001 3:37:35 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Combjelly, Re: "You've forgotten two things. One, Dresden is not built out all the way yet. Two, as they ramp 0.13 micron, they'll still be producing at Austin, at least until the Morgans are phased out." As long as we are still talking about the claim that AMD could supply 33% of the market with just the Dresden fab, then I disagree with you. 33% of the market is 57% more than they control now. The die size savings from .13u may allow them to produce in Dresden alone what it took them both fabs, but it certainly isn't going to do that, AND supply 57% more volumes. wanna_bmw