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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (54338)	10/19/2001 10:41:27 PM
From: Qualified Opinion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I dropped my target prices to buy AMAT and NVLS to the high teens. The forecasted worldwide recession has changed my mind. Furthermore, I love the way analysts keep on speculating about a recovery. Over capacity and lack of demand for chips seem to be problematic. Current position is 100 % cash.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (54338)	10/20/2001 4:28:51 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

If rotten business results and a terrorist attack can't drive prices to reaonable historical valuations, what will? Only the passage of time will allow the necessary corrections to take place. I can't predict with any accuracy when the next bull market will begin, but my gut tells me that will not occur before stocks become not merely "reasonable" but "stinking cheap". That's what I mean by the pendulum swinging all the way back. You have suggested in a somber moment long before 9/11 the possibility of PSR=1 to 1.5 as trough valuations for good companies like AMAT and NVLS. I think that the unprecedented events that we have witnessed in the past couple of months and what it means for risk premiums raises the likelihood of this scenario to at least 50%. Investor psychology does not change overnight. It may take years of subpar performance before complacency disappears and the average investor runs for cover. Right now that investor is merely bruised and asking himself what he should do. Sam