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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (22189)	10/19/2001 8:31:44 PM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 52237

Ibexx...I would hope so...

To: Ibexx who wrote (22189)	10/19/2001 8:46:28 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Ibexx, Couldn't this just mean a lot of small speculator shorts have been covered ... which wouldn't be bullish ? <From Prudential Sec's Closing Market Commentary (10/19) by Larry Wachtel: "One interesting figure was a 10% decline in margin debt in September from the prior month. At 144 billion, margin debt is at the lowest level since December 1998 and down from the peak of 278 billion in March of 2000. This suggests a lot of speculative excess has been ground out during the 18 month decline. "> Regards & have a great weekend Stephen

To: Ibexx who wrote (22189)	10/20/2001 11:13:32 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>>margin debt is at the lowest level since December 1998 << Well prices are where they were in December 98 for the NASDAQ and NDX so it would seem to just make sense that margin debt is at the same levels. I mean if you can only be margined at 50%-35% of the stocks worth, then shouldn't margin follow that amount? AS for it being a 10% decline from August to September, take a look, Sept stock prices are at least 10% lower. I view this no different than saying stock prices are lower, a bunch of people got margin calls or had to cough up cash thus margin levels are lower by the same ratio. I think a more useful measure of margin debt would be an equity to margin ratio. Otherwise, I suspect that margin debt will just track stock performance. From what I have seen on the boards and what not, no one has changed their trading or investing habits yet which is what scares me. I see too many still using margin, afraid to miss a low and piling into what ever seems to be moving up. Unfortunately, I am not sure where we are going short term. I added some puts Friday as a play on that big ugly candle but then when I ran my charts last night, my daily stuff looks like we are going to move up next week while my weekly charts look like we are headed south. I am going to be pretty busy this weekend trying to sort it all out. Right now I am boxed with calls and puts as I was of the impression that the first move up was real, then we would get a pullback and then I should add some more for the next leg up that was the one that should be shorted. The big black ugly candle Wednesday changed my bias to being short earlier and thus I added yesterday at the close. Those daily charts have me wondering if the first read may have been correct. Too bad there hasn't been at least 32 of those big ugly black candles for a statistically viable study. -gggggg- Good Luck, Lee

To: Ibexx who wrote (22189)	10/21/2001 6:43:22 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

<<margin debt is at the lowest level since December 1998 and down from the peak of 278 billion in March of 2000>> This may be misleading as last I heard the numbers are not based on banking and brokerage debt which is at all time highs. The lower margin debt may have to do with more players folding or closing out due to new margin rules that will take some people out. Banks and brokerages are stillleveraged to the hilt. One nasty derivatives blow-up could be a huge problem and they fail to mention this at all. A closer look at the derivative problem can be found at JP Morgan...(lifted from CyclePro site) JPM's (combined JPMorgan & Chase) netted derivative holdings is $22.3 trillion, their market capitalization is currently $61.2 billion, this means a ratio of 365 to 1. JPM's assets and deposit base is $713 billion, this means a ratio of 31.4 to 1.