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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (48134)	10/20/2001 11:16:07 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Great posts, chaz and 100. Mike Buckley can be the true GG that he is because of his circumstances but that does not mean that every investor can or should put themselves solely into one specifiec category or another. I'd like to add that I believe very, very few people should do that. Only those who can happily live with the extreme volatility should do it. Show me a method that said csco was worth $40 or less when it was at $82, then we have something we can use as a starting point. I believe those methods are discussed here in this folder from time to time, but they get met with resistance because people too often want empirical evidence of predictability even though valuation isn't predictive. As an example of a method that suggests a stock is worth about half of its current stock price, it was only three months ago (practically to the day) that I arrived at that conclusion for Siebel's valuation. When the stock was in the low $30s I wrote, based on the valuation, that I wouldn't be surprised if it got to the teens. It indeed did that prior to Sept. 11. --Mike Buckley

To: 100cfm who wrote (48134)	10/20/2001 12:42:19 PM
From: freeus	Respond to of 54805

Great post. I think you can add that an extreme day down is a time to buy (if it's a company you want to own) and an extreme day up is a time to sell (if it's a company you own). Even if the Naz did not collapse Qcom would have: a day where your stock goes up 156 points has everyone in it who wants to be. And even if it didn't that's enough of a gain in one day to say "I think I'd better take profits". We just weren't thinking that way. Great discussion going on here. Good luck and best wishes to all. Freeus