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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (6507)	10/21/2001 12:49:09 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

Hope you're right Carl... And I think over the next year or two you will be. But I also believe the thing China fears worse is for the two largest nuclear powers to form an alliance and effectively leaving them surrounded by states that are either aligned with one another, or antagonistic towards them. I'm not sure if India and China can approach one another given the animosities and China's occupation of Tibet so they would be effectively contained. China has been making aggressive moves in the S. China sea area, especially with the Spratly Islands, which are generally believed to belong to the Phillipines (but are claimed by various nations in the region). Control of the Spratly's gives China control over the S. China sea and the flow of oil and trade between Japan and Europe/Mid-East. Indonesia, being predominantly muslim, is the most strategic nation in the region and an approachment with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states would assist their level of influence there. Again, I'm lookin strategically over the next 3-10 years and what I would expect to see. But it all depends if China is able to destabilize the US-Russia alliance that is currently forming. And I take note of the economic trade between China and the US. It's important, and not something the Chinese will sacrifice without serious consideration. But I can see how they sense this Judao-Christian alliance between the US-Russia, and Europe, leaves them little choice. Only the future years will tell. However, I will say that the US will come of this war likely being even stronger politically than it was before it. We will likely see the US pulling away from being the primary backer in the Mid-East, probably on the part of both sides. Hawk