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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 2:16:02 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

tekboy, One reason there were a lot more posts in the past about practical application is because there was a unique combination of events that will never again transpire: formal, by-the-book Gorilla Gaming was new (because the book was new), the companies being studied were doing exceptionally well for the most part, and the stocks of those companies were also doing exceptionally well. In my mind, the most important of those three events relative to concern for the number of practical posts is that Gorilla Gaming as a formality was new. Because it was new to all of us, we were spending a lot of time sorting out our understanding of the principles and looking for established Gorillas, Kings, and candidates. Thus, there were a lot of practical posts. Because Gorilla Gaming is built around the development of markets and because markets take a rather long time to develop, new Gorillas, new Kings and even new, substantially viable candidates don't come along very often. I can't imagine that there will ever be enough new ones to justify the number of practical posts that were written in reponse to the newness of Gorilla Gaming. For those interested in the health of the folder, I think the current number of non-Gorilla Gaming posts is an indication that there is only a very minor sense of community compared to the earlier days in the folder. Community is important. Frank's and Lindy's decision that the only off-topic posts are rude posts was brilliant. Even though the sense of community is lacking these days (for whatever combination of reasons), the qualities of the folder that motivated people to call it the Camelot of cyberspace remain today. The two hallmarks of our forum were friendly, polite discussion whether posts were written in agreement or disagreement and a willing desire to test a belief or a hypothesis by tossing it out to the community hoping to get feedback. Those qualities exist today every bit as much as they used to exist even though there may be fewer people participating in the process. Relative to something you touched on in points #1 and #3, I am very concerned that people who are currently disillusioned with tech investing might become enthusiastic once tech stocks start going up again. Those people will likely get back into tech investing for the wrong reasons, the same wrong reasons they might have gotten in during the bubble. My fear is that they will likely suffer financially and emotionally all over again. I hope, instead, that the people who are disillusioned will use the recent experience to learn about themselves. Tech investing isn't for everyone and there's not a thing wrong with deciding that dealing with the complexity and volatility of it isn't a particular person's cup of tea. Just the opposite, I think most of us really admire anyone who comes to that decision. Probably my favorite quote about investing comes from David Gardner when he advised, "Know thy self." --Mike Buckley

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 9:56:43 AM
From: straight life	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Good post; I can't help replying. I mostly read one of the QCOM threads these days, giving G&K only a cursory check, because QCOM is about a company and a market that's dynamic, which is always more satisfying to be a part of that something that feels moribund. My take only, of course. I'll share something else as well, embarrassing as it is. I bought RBAK @ 120, it was down from about 200 (I bought ITWO as well, somewhere around 50) mostly because of the numerous discussions on this thread (and Value Line had an excellent review as well) Bruce Brown in particular had a lot of good things to say about them, wrote quite inspiringly about the whole NGN area. Anyway it went to a buck and change. $1.17 And I have a thousand shares. And Bruce Brown starts writing about technical analysis and Stan Weinstein and the like. Now, I'm casting no blame, Bruce (and by extension the whole thread) is free to evolve in any way he will, maybe I misunderstood him (and others) all along. Still, it is painful to come here. Inspiring stories are out, dry as toast discussions are in. Maybe when the hail stops falling and the weather clears up we can leave this moldy basement and play in the sun again. (PS- is it only my impression or did things really start to go wrong a year ago, what with the red states and the blue states and the election-that-just-wouldn't-end?) Peace.

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 10:46:30 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Nice post, Tek. Those three factors about cover the waterfront. I pick 3 as the biggest factor, a cyclical downturn in the economy which slows tech growth which dampens enthusiasm for tech stocks, etc. 1 and 2 are factors but not as important. I genuinely expect the quality of posting to return when some basis for enthusiasm returns. I say this with some guilt since, though I read this thread regularly, I rarely post here. Personally, I remain convinced that the long term growth of the internet is, roughly, on track, that companies of the sort discussed here will dominate wireless, storage, fiber optics, and software in that growth. And, more particularly, I think the 9-11 events will speed the growth of storage, distributed computing sites, and wireless. Companies will insist on more than one level of redundancy for storage and rapid, perhaps real time, backup in offsite facilities. And they are much more likely to distribute functions geographically, which will increase pressures for speedier internet access in metropolitan areas. As for when this will come to past, who knows. But, in the meantime, it's fascinating to watch the ways in which businesses try to manage themselves through these difficult times, to see what leads some to gain market share and others to lose, and to try to determine which companies will be the stronger on the other side. John

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 12:51:36 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 54805

Although I lurk this thread, and I'm not a gamer, it seems that the death of the bull has a lot to do with the lack of new gorillas being found. C2@Iwasabullmarketgeniusthen.com.atose

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 12:54:37 PM
From: areokat	Respond to of 54805

>>It is not clear that with the current level of attention we will, in fact, be able to spot the next young gorillas in real time.<< Others have said it better but FWIW I don't think at the present time it is very likely that we will be able to spot too many gorilla candidates. If most of the GK type of companies that we follow are having a hard time seeing any visibility why would it be much different for us. In the mean time we have more time to digest those posts that are gems and reflect on the variety of thoughts that are being offered by many bright people, ones we haven't heard as much from in the go-go days. Numerically maybe we don't have as many posters as we have had in the past but with the quality we are seeing I don't think the thread has a problem. Look at the treatment that BEAS received. That candidate was chewed on for days. And when things become a little clearer we'll start to see new candidates being pushed by threadheads. Finally I suspect that it's not only G&K new investors that are dropping out but first time investors in general. Many will wait until the market is clearly recovering before they jump back in. Nothing we could do will change that-it's human nature. Kat

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/22/2001 2:28:38 PM
From: Sunny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tekboy, there could be another choice. Trauma caused by the magnitude of the fall has caused paralysis. I made a decision to LTBH at the wrong time and refused to believe that a succession of 20% drops would not reverse. Now, I check on you guys periodically, but I use the time in pursuit of a new hobby. At 50, I am learning to play the guitar and finding it much more rewarding that fretting over what I didn't do 18 months ago. Singing to my wife of 25 years has also had a positive affect on a relationship that had been neglected in the roaring bull market. I think our community is just fine and this is still my home base. I am content to let you guys who actually can contribute something to the knowledge base discuss the subject du jour. Still Blue, Sunny

To: tekboy who wrote (48163)	10/23/2001 8:47:49 AM
From: JHP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<1. Many members of the G&K community have been so hurt by the downdraft that they are either busted or disillusioned with cutting-edge tech investing or both.>> a college finance proffessor in boston has a course on the failed Gorilla Game concept! Yes he thinks G Moore is a bad joke! He uses this thread as course material,teaching his students what not to do! Your post sums up the failed theory very well,hard to invest when you have just lost all your money! regards john