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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bill who wrote (1658)10/22/2001 6:10:37 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn  Respond to of 11633
 
There is a posting on SH saying that AET.UN is likely
to fall to 9.00. According to the post, the recent
financing was a bought deal and the organizations
that did the buying will want to dump their stock.
Any thoughts?

------------ These "done deals" have been done by the trusts on a number of past occassions. For the trusts it is probably the simplest and easiest way for them to get the financing they want. For the investor it usually means some short term pain as the price of the units quickly falls to the "done deal" pricing. In this case $11. Longer term the affects to unitholders (longterm holders / accumulators) is not an issue. Since the proceeds are generally used to strengthen the trust by paying down debt or for future aquisitions, which longer term adds to the trust and adds to the unitholders. Now the organizations that do these dealings are the major brokerage firms. They buy these to pass them off to their clients. If they buy at $11 they most surely have a interest to resell these at prices above their costs, thats the whole idea, otherwise they are the ones to take the loss in the dealing. The trusts have already gotten what they wanted, the financing. That being said it all comes down to the investor that will end up buying these units. Will they pay $11 or more or won't they? If they don't the unit price will fall. If they do the unit price will rise. Longer term it will then depend on market conditions (what gas and oil do) and whether the trust puts this financing to good use or not. If they do and it adds value to the trust the unit price will rise and or distributions will be maintained or grow. If not it could fall and or distributions will not be maintained and will fall . For an idea of just which is the most likely look to any past "done deals" done by the trust. Chances are pretty good that if it has been around for more than a few years it has already done a number of these.
Bottom line is that I do not have this trust and I am not aware of its history so I do not know how far it could drop. I am not certain that anyone can be certain as to how far in one direction the trust units may go. Those that make the claims to know are usually shown to be way off the mark. As I said before if one has done his own due diligence. If he has been satisfied with how the trust has done. If he has been satisfied by the management of the trust. Then the only course of action is too accumulate on any weakness that may come along. Or the other choice is to trade these thinking you are the best trader around. And we all know the results of that. As the results of the traders here have shown.



To: bill who wrote (1658)10/22/2001 6:23:59 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn  Respond to of 11633
 
I found this on another board
clubs.yahoo.com

speculating
snowflak11
(48/M/Northeastern Ontario, Can)
10/21/01 6:40 pm

Okay I must admit that this is just wild (the wildest) speculation. But here goes anyway. It's only a
guess in a connect-the-dots game but something seems to be up between Arc Financial Group Ltd. and
Gauntlet Energy.

Why do I say that:

1. GAU is at the top of Research Capital's list of potential takeover targets of the Junior Producers.
2. On Oct. 9 GAU annouced that ARC Canadian Energy Venture Fund 2 was acquiring some GAU
shares on the open market and now have control over +5M shares (35% of outstanding GAU shares).
Don't be fooled; this isn't AET, but a private "limited partnership" sister fund under the direction of Arc
Financial Mngmt. Ltd.
3. The GAU price seems to be showing a little too much pop lately, compared to the TSE Oil & Gas
Producers Index. Now, that's either more wild speculation or something may be up.

and just to add a little spice,

4. On Oct. 18 Arc Energy (AET) announced a new issue of 5,000,000 trust units at $11.00 ($C 55M)
to close on about Nov. 5, 2001. Now I wonder where that money's going to go; to repay debt, finance
part of their Q4 capital expenditure program, or possibly to facilitate future acquisitions.

I'm not putting any money on it, but it's interesting to watch the speculation on the boards.

Interesting!! What do you think?

Regards,

snowflake



To: bill who wrote (1658)10/22/2001 12:03:34 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11633
 
Bill , I thought Stan might come back with this. You may wish to look over his posting # 1061 which started this area of discussion. As well as the subsequent postings, mine included. As is usual Stan presents no proof to support his claims. Just makes comments to try to drive down these trusts because his own due diligence has failed so miserably. At any rate the conclusion I arrived at was that if Stan were correct somebody would have presented the evidence and taken the participants to court and sued for many millions and the practise would have been stopped cold. As none have come to do that, and that the practise has not stopped ,means there is no manipulation going on whatsoever. That Stan himself has not taken any appropriate legal action on his own behalf means he has not one bit of proof. He and others do not play these trusts for the long term as they should be played. And when short term they position themselves in the wrong direction and they do not make anything or worse yet they loose. They cry fowl and look to lay the blame elsewhere instead of at themselves. If their going to pretend to be expert traders and aren't really then it should be no surprise that they have the results they have.
I will comment on Stans response below

""""Now here's the part I really like - they also tip off their friends beforehand, who then double up short before the new
issue announcement. That way, they can help support the unit price post-announcement by buying back in their short
positions at the issue price while everyone waits for the deal to clear approvals and then close.""""""""

------------ As is usual just statements and no supporting facts. Look to that past exchange where another poster looked to the trading data to reveal that no evidence showed such an occurrence. Stans response was that they do it with secret accounts. Although even secret accounts would leave a record of such activity. Guess what none found. The amount of trading indicated that the positioning according to the data was small and the movements of just a few cents. Stans response he knew traders that would do for much less. So here we are suppose to believe that a trader working for a big firm is going to be wasting his time and the firms resources to make a few thousands. The firm would toss that trader out on his ass. Wasting resources for a few thousands when he should be spenting the time making many times that ( hundreds of thousands or millions). -------------------

""""""" Whatever units they can't or don't need to buy back, they simply are allotted from the new issue. Voila, their buddies
are magically flat again, except with a buck or two extra per share in their pockets. Afterwards, everybody takes
turns buying each other lunch for a few months until the next deal comes along."""""""""""""

------------------- Still no evidence. Where is it? You won't see any here or anywhere.-----------------------

""""""""""""" Now, some people would say that it seems kind of bizarre that entities whose raison d'etre is to generate cash should
need to - hold onto your hats, now - keep raising cash selling new units. Could it be that they are paying out too much
monthly in order to maintain the masquerade as high yielding enterprises? No, that couldn't be it, of course not. After
all, 25% plus yields grow on trees, right?"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

-------------- Again provide evidence and not just hear say or scare tactics. All it takes is to go through the trusts quarterly reports and annual reports and look at how much the trust sells at what price for the income the unit holders receive. That is the only source of income reported. There is no mention of any other. This talk of masquerading income is just so much BS.--------------------------------------------------

""""""""""""""""""" The TSE and OSC condone these abusive and oppressive trading practices, which goes a long way toward explaining
why I have no respect for those bodies. I would suggest you just consider this rape and pillage exercise as giving back
part of that high yield."""""""""""""

---------------- Then why doesn't Stan take these to court in a class action lawsuit. Provide his evidence to the court and he can make millions for himself and others and stop the practise. Simple fact he has no evidence. He would be laughed out of court ------------------------------------

"""""""""""" And Bill, just before I go - you will no doubt soon be hearing from those "who believe" that it's a necessary evil and an
okay thing for the trusts to issue new units using bought deals on terms favorable to insiders but prejudicial to your
position. While you listen to their explanations, think about that feeling you currently have that you've just been robbed,
and then tell me which is more real."""""""""""""""""""""

------------- As is all ways the case, these traders want you to base your investing on feelings, not on real facts. A look at all the facts (NONE) presented by Stan here and in the forementioned previous discussion. Should tell the real story. ---------------------