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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (1089)	10/22/2001 3:53:19 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<I can not see in the future, but this is the issue that I am struggling with to better understand the risks associated with future inflation, stagflation or deflation.> just keep monitoring the data:) max

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (1089)	10/22/2001 6:34:32 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99280

Historically inflation often has been used as a tool to reduce real debt burdens. Excess debt clearly is the major problem today. Less painful to reduce it via inflation than via massive debt repudiation. This is not a prediction, just one possible scenario..

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (1089)	10/22/2001 7:49:41 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 99280

Joan, I believe this is a substantial factor in the overall picture of why this country is heading into its toughest eeconomic period since the great depression. Its not only the consumer debt, but business debt as well as war debt. This is the defference between Japan and the US. While Japan has been in an 11 year Secular bear its inflation has been in chech even as monetary policy still gives the paper away almost for free! In the early 1960's we went into a nasty Bear, as well as recession and at that time if you look at historical GDP it was not even close to what the US has had over the last 10 years on an Average. The over capacity problem was also present back in the 60's and many investors believed it would be corrected going into the 70's. We know what happened in that war time from 1967-1974, and the lingering effects on the economy the problem we have is just that issue of instead of having 1-3 corporations producing a product like in the 60's and early 70's, we now have 15-20!! Hyper-inflation, and staginflation are economic dilemmas that are directly causal to Over-capacity, Over-production, and loss monetary policy. if you include the loss of the consumer from the current Bear attack in the market place you get a VERY SAD outlook for the next 3-5 years! thos enviroment is perhaps the best for a trader, since I do expect 20-30% counter trend rallies. Currently I believe we are at the tail end of one currently. Just don't expect the INFLATION indicator to show up until late 2002, and into 2003.