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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22271)	10/22/2001 2:00:09 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>>pricing in a bottoming in sales and margins in 1H02, and a strong rebound in both those measures, in 2H02<< I am on line for the bottoming projection but I strongly disagree with the rebound expectations. I can't see earnings dropping much farther down the road but I see absolutely no reason for any kind of rebound. The DOT coms are gone thus no large scale server, router, e-commerce software sales ahead, the Y2K scare is over so I don't see massive upgrades in software and older hardware and there is enough fiber laid in the ground now to last any future upgrade needs for the next 20 years. Telecom and consumer debt is astronomical and from the huge number of corporate bonds being sold the last few weeks it appears the regular brick and mortars aren't cash rich either. I was just looking at the Bond center on my broker site and was noticing how many commercial bonds are for sale yielding 7-8%. The watering down of future profits is still running rampant with the common stock holder still getting little "real" return other than hoping that some other sucker will pay more down the road. Insider buys still aren't showing that much enthusiasm either. I expect a "L" recovery, not a "U", "V" or "W". BWDIK I am sure we will bounce once earnings start showing flat instead of down 40% but that will just be the last hurrah of the perma bulls. I still maintain that we will go into a long drawn out trading range when the real bottom is finally hit. The only problem with my outlook is that every major bear market in history has had a series of impressive 50% rallies including the 1930s, 60s etc. We have yet to have one of those. Maybe we will get one of those to get the last big transfer of wealth over with before the long trading range takes hold. Heck if I am sure since that is too far out for my crystal ball. My reception isn't that good. -ggg- PS - 13:19 ET Anthrax Update : D.C. Department of Health discloses that two postal workers have passed away. Test results have not confirmed anthrax as the cause of either death, but official calls them "highly suspicious." Market edges lower in reaction to the report, with Dow slipping about 20 pts and Nasdaq approx. 10 pts. Also rumors floating around SI that Rubin has been called to DC for closed door meetings again. Get ready for a sutained PPT effort over the next couple weeks. Apparently Down has been outlawed in the name of national security. -gggg- Good Luck, Lee