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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (54423)	10/22/2001 7:16:49 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I am maintaining my ratchet-down tactic. I will be less and less confident that it is correct as time passes. The forward looking statements by AMAT in Nov and most others next Jan will be key. Speaking of AMAT, I just read a summary of a WSJ Transcript publication where the Lehman analyst suggested that AMAT could record $20B sales at the next peak ( in ~2005 ) and bring $5.50 earnings to the bottom line. Historically, $5.50 merits a peak price of $110 @ a 20 PE. In the past there have beeen arguments for a higher PE, so 25 gives $137.50 and 30 gives $165. All you long suffering AMAT longs who didn't sell at the last peak should make a mental note that you will start selling at $110 and finish somewhere between $110 and $165. If the price reaches $110 long before $20B is in sight, the correct response is to exit more aggressively. The incorrect response is to sit tight and dream of $250 or $300. So, we can all accumulate AMAT with confidence, knowing we have an exit strategy. See, investing isn't that difficult.