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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (62058)	10/23/2001 7:41:54 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Re: U.S. vs. Japan The analogies don't hold for two important reasons: 1. Japan's root problems were based on an unfavorable demographic cycle. One of the seminal contributions that Harry Dent has made is a very convincing case that long-term macroeconomic cycles are driven by demographics. Japan's demographic peak hit in 1989 just as its market was cresting. The U.S. won't experience a similar peak until 2009, after which we will probably see a multi-year secular downtrend. (The post-1929 depression also coincided with a U.S. demographic peak). 2. Japan refused (and still largely refuses) to allow failing companies to fail. The U.S. S&L crisis was cleaned up in relatively short order because of an aggressive attitude towards admitting failure, taking losses, and moving on. The massive writeoffs and restructurings we've seen over the past year are the sort of "deck clearing" that the U.S. does well in putting problems behind it rather than burying them and letting the stench permeate the economy for years. The result is that the U.S. economy will bounce back a lot sooner than the gloomsters believe.