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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (145946)	10/25/2001 1:09:08 PM
From: fingolfen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Some musings: Northwood will have to run its ALU clock at 6GHZ to compete with a 2.5GHZ Thoroughbred. Without SOI, current leakage could be brick wall problem. If Intel's .13 process doesn't do a heck of a lot more for P4 than it did for PIII (I expect it will), Intel has a problem. Tom's already overclocked the Tualatin to 1.5GHz... Intel could release P3's at frequencies above where they are now, but most likely isn't for business reasons. A 50% pop implies that Intel should hit at least 3.0GHz on 0.13 micron. AMD always seems to be have shorter nominal gate lengths than other company's processes for a given node, why should .13 be different? AMD also appears to have waited for 193nm steppers to go to .18, which should let them push the .13 process just as they used 248nm steppers to push .18. Since when has AMD "traditionally" had shorter gate lengths for a given process node? This is the first time I've seen AMD push them so hard. AMD isn't using 193nm for 0.18 micron. Please document that wild claim... There have been no more delays than willamette had, and merced was in its own delay league, but, as you point out, if AMD can't get the hammers out, they'll have a big problem. When will Intel get to SOI? When they need it, and right now they don't need it. Right now AMD doesn't have it either, they're only "planning to have it" in another 9 months or so. Dan, I could spend hours trying to explain the finer points of semiconductor fabrication to you, but I know it will fall on deaf ears. The speed with which AMD has transitioned to the XP processors was very impressive, though they have been sitting on them, waiting for the holiday season. It does indicate that AMD can move quickly and spring surprises. How's availability? The launch wasn't too impressive as I couldn't find a machine in retail a week afterward. AMD always gets a good press release... I'll reserve judgement on how much of a "surprise" they "sprung" when they release Q4 earnings. .18 Athlon XP is quite competitive with .18 P4 (I think it modestly outperforms it, you probably don't) and has a well established, inexpensive infrastructure. I think AMD doing well is a done deal for Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year. Beyond that, it's Northwood vs. Thoroughbred, and we'll just have to see. No, I agree, the XP is a very competitive chip. AMD has already said they're going to lose more money this quarter and probably the next... so I honestly don't see how you can call that "doing well." To my knowledge Thoroughbred hasn't sampled... at least not in volume, whereas Northwood has. There's going to be a gap... The speed at which AMD has transitioned its platform to XP must be a little scary to Intel. AMD shipped about 2 weeks worth of inventory to their distributors and overnight they're 100% moved to the new chip. This was made simple by how little had to be changed, which made for a very smooth transition and confirmed successful execution of a platform plan created years earlier. Why??? Again, you're showing a fair amount of ignorance here. Intel sees the "XP" as merely an evolutionary development of the Athlon, and AMD only has one fab to transition. Sure, Intel generally takes more time to transition product lines, but when you're playing to 80% of the market, you need to consider the needs of all of your customers. Also, the transition didn't take "2 weeks" it most likely took closer to 6, but it was a wholesale change. Intel could do the same, but they don't want to risk alienating customer base. AMD learned a very big lesson very well when they had so many platform problems with the original Athlon. But they did learn. It's interesting to note that they claim to have produced hammer chipsets well ahead of Hammer itself. Compare that to the chipset and platform mess Intel has been in since the 810 and 820 came out in 1999. ... and compare that to Intel getting the i845 out a month and a half early. Also regarding hammer chipsets. Hammer has slipped to 2003... so AMD has the rims and tires to a Ferrari sitting in the garage... they may be able to afford the Ferrari in another year or so... I honestly think that AMD is going to hang in there only until the Northwood launch. At that point, they have serious problems.