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To: JRI who wrote (17763)	10/23/2001 8:12:46 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I dont know that much about Ewave but looking at Nikei and dow they are both in 4's in the bigger picture and they seem to have some time to go and length. The naz looks like it could nip 1900 and start to slowly roll. My guess is the 4 lasts to DECEMBER-JAN

To: JRI who wrote (17763)	10/23/2001 8:22:33 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

Thx J, AAII Investor sentiment weekly sentiment poll #'s are finalized every wednesday...last weeks #'s were Bulls...61%, Bears 21% Pretty much back in line with the mid/late may 25th top... for the first time since then. Back in a bit...

To: JRI who wrote (17763)	10/25/2001 11:35:34 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

COMPX Daily 10-25-01 stockcharts.com NDX 10-9-01 Daily with breakout failures and RSI overbought zone stockcharts.com NDX 10-25-01 Daily * with NDX 14 period RSI @ 64.9 stockcharts.com NDX Monthly 10-10-01 with 1990 L/T trendline and H/S Neckline resistance... both at apx. 15-1700 area stockcharts.com And finally this reminder... Message 15552893 Regarding bear market rallies... There are many choices for deep bear markets around the world, but in the American experience we only have two whoppers in modern history, time-wise that is -- the decline of the 1930's and the great sideways/down market of 1966-1982. Taking a look at the 1930's example to get an idea of the violence of rallies in the midst of an otherwise near straight decline from, say, a month/month perspective: • the decline began in September of 1929 and ended in July of 1932 -- 2 years and 10 months. • the Dow lost approximately 90% of its value • during the decline there were six rallies that retraced 35% to %45 percent from the previous top.* (For the NASDAQ from here, that would be like retracing to approximately the 2300 level vis a vis the last noticeable top at the end of January -- a 28% return/increase from yesterday's low!) • the rallies were months long -- in sequence they were 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, and 2 months. • once the bottom was put in, we had a sharp 2 month rally that very nearly doubled the Dow! However, this was then followed by 6 months of decline that gave back over half the advance. • the high in 1929 was not surpassed until 1954 • if an investor had bought the dip on the way down and ended up with an average price representing the midpoint of the decline, then it was not until 1950 that this level was cleared for good. Of course, this bear may not be as bad as this previous worst bear market. One certainly hopes it is not. Statistically, it would seem to have very little chance. The only strong argument that it may be nearly as bad is the unprecedented excess preceding the decline. Best, JM