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To: Sully- who wrote (43504)	10/24/2001 2:50:08 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Oil Prices Could Gush if Conflict Escalates By M. Corey Goldman ABCNEWS.com Wednesday October 24 12:52 AM EDT Conflict overseas usually means higher oil and gas prices at home. Perhaps it was memories of the past that led so many to initially believe oil prices would skyrocket in the wake of last month's terror attacks. After all, trouble in and around the Middle East usually means in no uncertain terms that oil prices - and gas prices - are going up. On the contrary, however, oil and gasoline prices have actually declined since Sept. 11 on expectations that fewer planes flying, fewer factories operating and a general drop in economic activity has and will continue to lower demand. The reason, analysts say, is because of what they call in the business oversupply . With reduced demand for oil at home and with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holding production steady, there is more oil flowing right now than anyone needs, ensuring that prices — at least for the moment — will likely remain low. "Supply is not declining to balance the weakness in demand," said Fadel Gheit, analyst with Fahnstock & Company in New York. "Oversupply has caused a rapid deterioration in price. Those that are buying it are putting it into storage and demanding a discount to cover their holding costs. That all trickles down to consumers in one form or another. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is currently $1.31, down from $1.54 a month ago and $1.56 last year. And it's been no secret that at least some airline ticket prices have dropped dramatically — partly as enticements to get consumers to fly and partly because fuel costs are lower. Prices Could Spike At least that's how it is at the moment. But there are growing rumblings among analysts, economists and politicians that, with war raging in Central Asia and with tensions mounting in the oil-rich Middle East, both oil and gasoline prices could be significantly on the rise in the months ahead. "It is quite feasible that we could see prices rise if conditions overseas escalate in some form," said Steven Pfiefer, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. Pfeifer and several other analysts are predicting higher oil prices in similar fashion to what the U.S. experienced during the 1970s, when restrained production from OPEC (news - web sites) and military and political volatility in the Middle East led to skyrocketing oil prices and fuel costs. The difference in opinion over whether those risks will play out has led to a wide divergence in where experts see oil prices going in the months ahead. Some see crude oil falling to between $18 and $20 a barrel as global demand continues to slide, while others see it jumping as high as $28 and $30 a barrel. So what are some of the potential risks? One would be an attack of some kind on Saudi Arabia's capacity to ship oil. Saudi Arabia exports some 8 million barrels a day, more than double what the rest of the world combined is capable of producing. According to Fahnstock's Gheit, a "nightmare scenario" would be a successful attack on the country's major oil-shipping ports, reducing output to just 2 million barrels a day. Middle East Tensions Another scenario would be an expansion of the U.S.-led campaign to eradicate terrorism. President Bush (news - web sites) and other political leaders have suggested that the war against terrorism could move beyond Afghanistan (news - web sites)'s borders to other countries. If any of those other countries are OPEC members or allies of OPEC members, the current decision to keep output steady could abruptly change, analysts say. Yet another possibility involves flaring tensions within Israel. On Friday, Israeli tanks and troops entered parts of Palestinian-ruled Bethlehem after a surge of violence following the killing of an Israeli cabinet minister. Oil experts warn that further instability in the region could also potentially compromise OPEC's willingness to support the U.S.-led war effort, prompting them to tighten supply. Those potential risks and many more are what's prompting some groups in the United States to search for other alternatives. "Higher oil prices will come if the situation gets way out of control," Gheit said. "The bottom line is that when you have excess supply, it's a buyer's market. And right now it's a buyers market. But there is always a risk that things can change." Some Slick Alternatives One such alternative is Russia. In addition to its support for the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan, Russia is now offering its oil fields as a secure alternative to dependence on the turbulent Persian Gulf. Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union together produce about one-tenth of the world's oil. While analysts point out that Russia currently can't export enough oil to replace Middle Eastern sources in the event of a major disruption, construction of new pipelines could solve that. Another alternative is to develop existing oil resources within the United States. The U.S. Energy Department, which is currently forecasting "weaker underlying support for oil prices than previously projected," is expected to unveil a report next week outlining the benefits of developing and expanding domestic oil reserves, including bumping up the strategic reserve. Part of Bush's plan to expand domestic reserves includes the controversial development plan involving Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (news - web sites). "If the war on terrorism spreads to the Middle East, we'll see oil prices rise again," said Pfiefer. "While it may take a little while to work through excess supply, we could see a significant drop in supply if events over there heat up."

To: Sully- who wrote (43504)	10/24/2001 3:52:57 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

OSAMA BOUGHT A BATCH FOR 10G By NILES LATHEM ------------------------------------------------------------ nypost.com October 24, 2001 -- WASHINGTON - Terror master Osama bin Laden bought samples of anthrax by mail from shady laboratories in Eastern Europe and Asia for as little as $10,000, a former follower has told authorities in Egypt. The astonishing claim of how easily - and cheaply - the world's most wanted terrorist was able to acquire anthrax and other deadly germ agents was made in a 143-page confession of former extremist Ahmad Ibrahim al-Najjar at a recent trial of more than 100 members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Al-Najjar, serving a life sentence in Egypt, was among several Islamic Jihad operatives arrested in Albania in 1999 and brought home to Egypt to face trial for a series of attempts to destabilize the pro-Western government of President Hosni Mubarak. According to translated accounts of his testimony obtained by The Post, al-Najjar told authorities there was nothing cloak-and-dagger about bin Laden's transactions involving deadly biological agents. "Factories" in the Czech Republic and elsewhere in Eastern Europe supplied deadly bacteria, including e-coli and salmonella, by mail without checking the identities of the purchasers as long as bin Laden's agents paid $7,500 up front, al-Najjar said. Bin Laden's group was able to get the anthrax germ from another "factory" in Southeast Asia, which supplied it to the Indonesian-based Islamic Moro Front, a terror group closely associated with bin Laden. The price for the anthrax spores, al-Najjar said, was $3,685, "plus shipping costs." U.S. officials say they don't yet know whether bin Laden is responsible for the anthrax scare gripping the nation, although President Bush and other senior officials say they are suspicious. Bin Laden is known to have contacts with Iraqi officials and mafia groups in former Soviet republics - nations that have extensive chemical- and biological-weapons programs and that are known to have experimented with anthrax.