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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (48257)	10/24/2001 4:44:52 AM
From: techreports	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

You are talking about valuation, not "pongitude". Judgement about the latter is the forte of this group. Valuation is still a work in progress. To me, not only is the future growth rate very uncertain, it isn't even clear that SEBL is increasing its market share. It may be true that the products of PSFT, SAP and ORCL are not vertically oriented, i.e. they are not industry specific, but if they are very much lower priced that will satisfy a certain segment of the market place. Anyway the question I think you should first be addressing is how secure is SEBL's gorilla status, not the pricing issue, which should come later if you decide positively about the qualitative matters. Forgive me for asking, but where does Siebel's gorilla power or competitive advantage come from. What's the moat? Eventually the back-office players are going to get their CRM offerings vertically oriented. While their software may be cheaper, does it really matter? I don't think anyone expected Siebel to have 100% of the market. Apple has it's niche and the ERP players can have theirs. There are some people out there who feel the ERP players are going to eat away at Siebel's market share.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (48257)	10/24/2001 9:35:45 PM
From: paul_philp	Respond to of 54805

Malcolm, Is it possible that you just have a preference for enabling technology Gorillas? There is no doubt that they are the biggest wealth producers over the longest period of time. The application Gorillas do very well. I cannot think of any interpretation of Moore's concept of Gorilla which has Siebel be anything but a Gorilla. If Siebel is not a Gorilla then the concept is meaningless - in my eyes. I have never understood why it is assumed that it will be easy for back-office vendors to sell front-office applications. Different customers buying for different reason. It is also a different value chain. Paul