To: LTK007 who wrote (1372 ) 10/24/2001 2:09:07 PM From: Frederick Langford Respond to of 99280 Reports from all Federal Reserve Districts indicate weak economic activity in September and the first weeks of October. In all Districts, the tragedy of September 11 was followed by a short period of sharply reduced activity. Business activity recovered quickly from some aspects of the shock, such as reduced air cargo capacity, but longer-run effects are more difficult to assess. Retail sales, other than autos, were slightly lower than before September 11, but this weakness might have already been in train. The same is true for manufacturing. Insurance premiums have increased, and security precautions are disrupting productivity. Retail sales softened in September and early October in almost all Districts. Auto sales fell at the beginning of the period but have now rebounded following new zero-financing incentive plans. Both shipments and orders for a broad spectrum of manufactured goods, ranging from steel to semiconductors, are weak in most of the country. Construction generally slowed during the period. The softness in consumer spending, manufacturing, and construction is affecting the labor market, where layoffs and plant closings have been reported in many industries, from financial services on the East Coast to media and advertising on the West Coast to auto parts in the central states. There has been little upward pressure on either wages or prices, and, in some cases, they have actually fallen. The Effect of September 11 Retail sales followed much the same pattern throughout the country. In the week following the attack, consumer spending dropped sharply for all items except those that were likely purchased in preparation for possible additional attacks. Sales of groceries, security devices, and bottled water increased; purchases of insurance also rose. One to two weeks later, consumer buying picked up somewhat, although in most Districts it was weaker than in early September. Contacts in the Chicago District note that the weakness is the result of fundamental economic causes prevailing before the attack, higher unemployment, and falling stock prices, rather than the attack itself. federalreserve.gov Fred