bia-you use Robert J. Samuelson for your "liberal bias".
....fine,following are some examples using his words.
People may trim spending if they fear losing their jobs. Businesses curb investment if profits fall and idle capacity rises. Booms often end badly because people and firms -- foolish or too optimistic -- become overextended. They have spent or borrowed too much.
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Here, parallels with the 1920s become troubling. Consider some obvious similarities:
• The celebration of technology is common to both periods. In the 1920s, autos, the radio and appliances (refrigerators, vacuum cleaners) changed people's lives more than computers, the Internet and cell phones have today. From 1919 to 1929 the number of cars more than tripled, to 23 million. Road construction boomed. As for radio, "there was no such thing as radio broadcasting to the public until the autumn of 1920, but . . . by the spring of 1922 radio had become a craze," writes Frederick Lewis Allen in his 1931 classic "Only Yesterday." By 1929, Americans spent almost one percent of national income on radios; that's about $100 billion today.
• People then, as now, were transfixed by the stock market. Investors in the late 1920s had "boundless hope and optimism," said one contemporary observer. Stock ownership, though much lower, grew proportionately more. As late as 1928, only 3 percent of Americans had shares; by 1930 -- even after the 1929 crash -- it was 10 percent. In our era, stocks have become truly democratized. From 1989 to 1998, the share of households with shares or mutual funds rose from 32 percent to 52 percent.
• Heavy consumer borrowing characterizes each era. "The 1920s were definitely the beginning of modern consumer finance," says economic historian Martha Olney of the University of California, Berkeley. In the 1920s, installment lending -- loans secured by a car or appliance -- exploded. By 1929 about 15 percent of households bought a car on installment, up from 5 percent in 1919. The recent rise in borrowing is more widespread. From 1995 to 1999, consumer debt rose 34 percent to about $6.2 trillion (including $4.8 trillion in mortgages), says SMR Research.
• There's a parallel faith in the Fed. The belief today that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan can navigate the economy around almost any shoal has a predecessor. Congress created the Fed in 1913 to prevent banking panics and control inflation. Despite mild recessions in 1923-24 and 1926-27, the '20s' prosperity seemed to vindicate hopes for more stability.
washingtonpost.com
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The essence of a speculative boom is that most people do not believe that it is a speculative boom. If they did, they would behave differently.
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In 1999, initial public offerings (IPOs) of stock--companies selling shares for the first time--reached a record $93 billion, twice the 1998 level ($45 billion) and 10 times the 1994 level ($9 billion)
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Overconfidence may breed risk by inspiring reckless consumer, business or investor behavior. Contrary to the theory, new technology increases uncertainty and, therefore, risk. Companies with old technologies may founder. No one knows which new companies may flourish.
washingtonpost.com
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James Cramer--well-known stock commentator and investment manager--helps explain why the Nasdaq stock index is flirting with 5,000 .
In his speech, Cramer listed 10 stocks that his investment fund is buying. Most have losses. Some have tiny profits. All "make the Web faster, cheaper, better and easier to access," he said. These tech stocks "are the only ones that are going higher consistently in good days and bad. I love every one of them, just as I loathe the rest of the stock universe."
.Now consider a Cramer pick, Ariba Inc.
.There were once words for this: "Speculation," "the greater fool theory of investing," "herd behavior." But while the process rewards, it seems respectable. Cramer justifies his investing style on three grounds. First, it works; he says that his investment fund has averaged annual returns of 24 percent since 1987.
.Cisco Systems has a PE ratio of about 190. Sun Microsystems' PE is about 125.
.In 1998, venture capital funds poured a record $19.3 billion into start-ups; in 1999, the figure zoomed to $49.9 billion.
.Cramer is a founder and its star commentator. Its stock went public last May at $19 a share. It leapt as high as $71; yesterday it closed at $12.50. This suggests that some Internet stocks could fall 80 or 90 percent. What happens to the economy if many do?
washingtonpost.com
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What is happening is that lawyers, acting on their own and deploying various legal devices, are increasingly trying to set government policies by themselves.
.There's Microsoft. The Justice Department's antitrust suit.
. Then there was Ken Starr's investigation of Clinton.
.the gun makers
.Finally, recall the tobacco settlement.
.Lawyers--like other people--have been known to be ambitious, greedy and power-hungry. Some will always seize opportunities to expand their wealth or influence, unless stopped. But resistance is waning. Indeed, social activists and some political leaders increasingly prefer legal to legislative action. The legal route promises a definitive outcome, while legislation may go nowhere. Money awards from lawsuits can substitute for tax increases. In defending huge tobacco fees for lawyer Peter Angelos, Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening said: "Give me three more Peter Angeloses, and we don't have to worry about the budget."(remember:its only 99%of all lawyers make 1% look bad)
washingtonpost.com
As Alan Greenspan warns, it is better "to be right than quick." ......Thats funny......
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.you say "And the Bush administration could care less."
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.I should post you're "liberal bias" ....lets say here
Subject 20633
EH?
D.A. |
