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To: AugustWest who wrote (18870)	10/25/2001 9:53:33 PM
From: Harp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

Interesting, some thoughts about anthrax and bill pay and the postal service money.cnn.com U.S. Post Office reports 5% drop in mail; direct marketers hardly affected. By Staff Writer Luisa Beltran NEW YORK (CNNmoney) - The continued threat of anthrax will likely push more consumers and businesses to us e-mail, but the death of "snail mail" has been exaggerated, analysts said. So far there have been 15 confirmed or suspected cases of anthrax, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Three individuals have died. The bacteria, apparently spread through the mail, will cause some consumers to shy away from sending and receiving mail. The U.S. Postal Service delivers about 208 billion pieces of mail a year with 680 million items distributed each day, spokesman Bob Anderson said. The average person in the United States receives about 20 pieces a week, he said. The Postal Service has already experienced a decline since the terrorist attacks Sept. 11, Anderson said. "At our board meeting in October, operations reported a 5 percent drop in mail," Anderson said. However, the post office did not have data available on anthrax's effect on mail since the first incidence earlier this month. So far, the anthrax scare is having a negligible effect on direct mailers. Bulk mailings generated $528 billion in sales last year and companies have lost about $1 billion-to-$2 billion sales, said Lou Mastria, director of public and international affairs at the Direct Marketing Association. The anthrax scare will not cause direct marketers to rely solely on e-mail, he said. "E-mail penetration is just not there yet," Mastria said. "There is only one service that goes to every person every single day. And that is not e-mail." Who will benefit? For the most part, the scare will lead to an increased use in e-mail for businesses and consumers, said analyst Neal MacDonald of the Gartner Group. E-mail use has grown 40 percent year-to-year but the anthrax scare is expected to cause usage to increase to 45 percent this year, he said. "E-mail is not for everyone, but 70 percent of the U.S. population has a PC in their house," he said. Anthrax's immediate effect on "snail mail" is still unknown but many insiders predict that businesses and consumers will begin using email more for online transactions such as bill payment. But consumers who have lagged in their technology use, and still don't use e-mail, will probably not seek out the Internet, said analyst Shar VanBoskirk of Forrester Research. "This won't be enough for people to overcome their technology inhibitions," VanBoskirk said. "A simple fear of the post won't make them use a computer better." And those consumers that want to receive bills online may be out ofluck. Nearly 95 percent of U.S. businesses still send invoices via snail mail with the average consumer gets about eight to 10 bills a month, said analyst Cathy Graeber of Forrester Research. Only 200 to 400 companies have the capabilities to send statements online. So out of the 10 bills received in one month, only about two will be available online, she said. "Anthrax will do a lot to raise awareness levels but the industry just can't flip the switch and make all bills appear automatically," Graeber said. ' The anthrax scare probably won't disrupt accounts but delayed mail could cause some consumers to incur late fees. As an alternative, people can look to their banks to make sure invoices get paid electronically, she said. "You would still get a bill in the mail but it's a way to avoid late fees," Graeber said. Death of U.S. Post? The demise of snail mail is probably premature, analysts. A few yearsago, many similarly proclaimed the death of regular mail with the advent of online shopping. However, online retailers actually helped the U.S. Postal Service since such transactions led to an increase in parcels and bills. "There is always going to be 'snail mail,'" said Gartner's MacDonald. "Just like flying, there will be some percentage of the population paranoid whether to use e-mail." In the last few years, the character of mail has shifted. Letter writing died with the arrival of the Internet and business-related items - such as advertisings, catalogs and periodicals - now make up 90 percent of regular mail, he said. "Personal correspondence doesn't exist anymore other than greeting cards, postcards and those few dedicated people who still write Aunt Millie," Anderson said. "The mix is changing but volume is holding steady." Anthrax scares will make people more hesitant about their mail andthe Post Office is offering simple guidelines to handle suspicious mail,like washing your hands afterwards. "We can't guarantee that the mail is 100 percent safe," Anderson said. "But you should be alert and use common sense like you do when you answer the front door. Don't let them in if you don't know them."