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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (60175)	10/25/2001 1:38:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Cramer bullish on PC stocks. Consumer Spending the Key to a PC Revival By James J. Cramer 10/25/2001 01:04 PM EDT Just because I am not going to upgrade my personal computer doesn't mean you are not going to upgrade. I can tell you this, the way the personal computer stocks have been acting, it is pretty obvious that someone is going to upgrade. For weeks, I have been watching the action in Dell and Intel and Compaq and I have been wondering what has kept them so robust. It certainly wasn't the quarters they reported. Those were simply not so hot. Nor was it the valuation -- they are anything but rock bottom as all of the stocks have been lower than where they are now. I am beginning to think that what is keeping them up is the possibility that Bill Gates has decided to spend millions of dollars in marketing to get you to think that you have to upgrade, and, in some ways, I think he is going to succeed. Perhaps better than anyone thinks. You have to understand the way I think. I am skeptical about why stocks go up that shouldn't. But I am not cynical about it. I don't say "those stocks don't belong in the group that's going up or doing better." Instead, I try to get in the heads of the buyers and figure out what they see or what they know. And what I am thinking is that despite early reports that this XP doesn't break any new ground, enough people have been waiting for a new Windows, that maybe, just maybe, we get an upgrade cycle and it propels these stocks still higher, certainly higher than we thought we would get without it. Now, the question is, have these stocks already had their move in anticipation of Windows and we should sell to those investors that are just getting in, if we own the stocks already. I know I thought about trying to sell some Microsoft yesterday, acknowledging that it has had a big move. But I think there is more to come. Because I am more positive on the consumer and the consumer's spending than most analysts out there. I think that this segment of tech has bottomed. I don't think it can skyrocket back, but I think it can offer above average returns if bought right. Which is why I am hoping for a profit-taking pullback so I can get more money to work in this sector.