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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (195956)	10/25/2001 4:55:44 PM
From: Mr. Whist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

Your analysis excludes the economy. Think back to '92 when Bush Sr. successfully (arguably) prosecuted the Persian Gulf War, had the highest presidential approval ratings in history (up to that time), but lost the election to Clinton, largely because of the economy (but also because of Ross). I do agree with 1/2 of your analysis. If the Republicans can convince voters that Bush has done a fine job dealing with the aftermath of 9-11, and that he must have continued congressional support, then I believe the Republicans would be favored to retain the White House in '04. However, having thousands of American workers added to the unemployment rolls every week plays into the hands of the Democrats, not the Republicans. Best-case scenario (politically) for Republicans: War in Afghanistan drags on, with nominal victories for U.S., and economy shows a few signs of improvement. Best-case scenario (politically) for Democrats: War in Afghanistan ends by mid '02, but Dow stays stalled in low 8000s and unemployment remains high. The war on terrorism has helped Bush. The WSJ on its front page offers disturbing stories every day about the plight of the economy and businesses. If it were not for Osama bin Laden, these stories would be played up much larger in newspapers and on cable TV squawk shows. The last factor, which still must be addressed, is angry white backlash in the South, Plains states and, to some extent, the Midwest. It might take more than I think it will to see many of these people vote Democratic again. Perhaps a bad economy will be the stimulus. On the other hand, perhaps the Clinton hate factor is worse than I thought it was. Time will tell.