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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (131172)	10/25/2001 7:05:46 PM
From: reaper	Respond to of 436258

Patron (or anybody)....any thoughts on Verisign This is a mostly subscription business. So instead of following P&L revenue I follow BOOKINGS, which are crudely P&L revenue plus change in deferred. Anyway, while P&L revenue has been growing very smartly at Verisign, bookings have largely stalled out here. Q1:01 $246.8mm Q2:01 259.5mm Q3:01 270.0mm P&L revenue projections for Verisign for next year are quite huge; ranging from a low of $1.4 billion at Bear Stearns to a high of $1.5 billion at Morgan Stanley. If bookings stall at current levels revenue could be as low at $1.1 billion; even if they keep rising 4%-ish sequentially (seems not likely in this environment) CY02 revenue wouldn't top $1.25 billion. This thing has a huge multiple (7x-ish revenue, 50x EPS) due to the 'certainty' or 'visibility' of its earnings. There is a huge double whammy coming here, it seems to me, as (i) estimates come down; and (ii) multiple compresses as earnings turn out to not be so 'visible' (though they are visible to me; the vision just eludes Putnam and Janus, two of the largest shareholders). Anybody got a thought on the chart? Cheers